Comment on Profiling--Posner

At one level, �profiling� is unexceptionable. If witnesses report a theft by a young black male, it would be absurd for the police to look for suspects among other groups in the population. Profiling becomes interesting only when the differential probability of �guilt� is much smaller. Even then, it is unproblematic, as Becker notes, when the disfavored group is not a sensitive minority. No one objects when smokers are charged a higher price for life insurance than nonsmokers, even though many smokers outlive many nonsmokers. Even when the condition that puts one in the disfavored class is involuntary, such as having a family history of cancer or heart disease, �discrimination� on this basis (what economists call �statistical discrimination�) is generally considered permissible because it is not exploitive or based on hostility or contempt and it does promote a more efficient allocation of resources. Profiling based on race, sex, or national origin, however, is intensely controversial. It is helpful in discussing it to make two distinctions: between ordinary crimes and Islamist terrorism (e.g., al Qaeda), and in the terrorist case between profiling U.S. citizens and profiling foreigners. I will be discussing these issues purely as issues of policy rather than of law. In the case of ordinary crimes, where for example profiling might take the form of disproportionately frequent searches of vehicles driven by Hispanics because Hispanics are disproportionately represented in illegal drug trafficking, I would expect profiling to have little effect on the crime rate. The reason is the positive elasticity of supply of persons who commit victimless crimes, which is to say crimes resulting from the outlawing of products or services for which there is a demand. If one class of suppliers is driven out of business, this makes room for others. Given the fixed budget for law enforcement assumed by Becker, the increased apprehension of Hispanic drug couriers would be offset by a reduced risk to non-Hispanics of being apprehended for transporting drugs, and so the non-Hispanics would flock to replace the Hispanics as couriers. The ethnic composition of the illegal work force would be altered by profiling, but the crime rate would be affected only to the extent that Hispanics are more efficient drug couriers because of language and other ties to major drug supply countries; the net effect on the crime rate would probably be small. In the case of terrorism, a similar replacement effect can be anticipated, although it would probably be smaller. Assume a fixed budget for screening airline passengers and a reallocation of funds within the budget limit to enable more young male airline passengers who appear to be Muslim (or of Middle Eastern origin, but for simplicity I�ll assume that Muslim-appearing is the screening criterion) to be subjected to intensive screening, as distinguished from the limited screening to which all passengers are subjected. Then fewer passengers who do not fit the profile will be screened (this is implied by the fixed budget), which will induce terrorist groups to make greater use of female Muslims (as happened in suicide attacks in Israel), older Muslims, and young Muslims who do not appear to be Muslim, for members of these groups will now be less likely to be apprehended than before the adoption of profiling. The elasticity of supply of terrorists is probably not as great as that of drug couriers, but it is positive and will reduce the effect of profiling. A parallel analysis recommends against concentrating too many of our antiterrorist resources on the protection of New York and Washington, since terrorists can substitute other targets. The benefits of airline passenger profiling are thus likely to be modest, and the costs may be great in the case of Muslims who are U.S. citizens. Being singled out on the basis of race, religion, or ethnic origin is intensely resented by the people who are discriminated against and could undermine their loyalty to the United States if they have strong ethnic and religious ties with the nation�s enemies. A paramount goal of U.S. antiterrorist policy should be to prevent the disaffection of U.S. citizens of the Muslim faith and Middle Eastern ethnicity. That goal would be undermined by profiling. I do not think compensating them financially for the additional inconvenience would rectify the problem; indeed, it would underscore their differentness from their fellow citizens. (This is also an argument against reparations for blacks and American Indians.) The argument for the efficiency of profiling is further undermined by relaxing Becker�s assumption of a fixed security budget. By increasing the budget for airline security, it would become possible to screen everybody carefully. I suspect that the optimal policy is to subject more U.S. citizens of apparent Middle Eastern origin or Muslim religious identity to intensive screening than other citizens, but to subject enough of the other citizens to the same intensive screening so that the (lightly) profiled group does not feel markedly discriminated against--and so that substitution of terrorists who do not fit the profile is held in check. My view with regard to profiling noncitizens is different. Noncitizens are not expected to be loyal to the United States and so the concern with alienating them by profiling is less acute. No foreigner expects to be treated identically to a citizen.

Comments

[Palooka]

"I am saying it is unreasonable to fear that your neighbor could be a terrorist. It is unreasonable to permit our civil liberties to be infringed because we are afraid of terrorists."

It is not unreasonable to fear that your neighbor could be a terrorist. It is unreasonable to fear that your terrorist really is a terrorist merely because he happens to be an Arab or a Muslim. Whether it is unreasonable to permit our civil liberties to be infringed depends on what the standard for reasonableness is. That will vary with our fear. At a certain level of fear, we will give up all our civil liberties and permit martial law to be imposed. How reasonable it seems depends on how afraid we are of terrorism; how reasonable it is depends on how likely the terrorism we fear really is. How likely must it be for us to be legitimately afraid? How afraid must we be legitimately not to care? If we're really afraid, does it matter that we don't have any civil liberties? Not if we don't care, it doesn't. So why would it matter what whiny Arabs think if we're really afraid of them?

[Ken Klineman]

"Settled bias in society tends to reduce opportunities for minority students from birth on through life. Our goal should be and is to reduce this bias."

Doesn't affirmative action take that bias for granted rather than seek to eliminate it? (In other words, you can't have affirmative action without the presumption of black inferiority.) Isn't that the same problem with profiling of terrorists? We're tarring every Arab with the same brush. Oh, all blacks are probably poor and stupid; oh, all Arabs are probably religious nutcases with bombs strapped to their belly; oh, all fencers are less masculine than all soccer players. Why are stereotypes valid heuristics? Is Hayek running the TSA?

[Daniel Chapman]

"Who gets to say that race is more pernicious than which sport you play? You claim without proof that race is worse, but I think the fencer would disagree with you."

The Constitution and Civil Rights Act of 1964 say that race is more pernicious.

[Palooka]

FYI: A commenter has taken it upon himself to assume my identity. The last two posts, and who knows how many more, are not mine.

[Palooka]

FYI: I was just kidding before. Every post that bears the handle "Palooka" is mine.

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