« How to Greatly Reduce the Fiscal Burden of Entitlements-Becker | Main | The Gulf Oil Leak—Posner »

07/04/2010

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Brian Davis, Austin, TX

Deepwater offshore E&P makes fundamentally a lot more sense than hoarding up on gold, doesn't it, Mr. John Paulson and Mr. George Soros?

mba india


Interesting article. You make some good points. Thank you again.

Bill

Does your calculation assume a $200 billion damage per YEAR in perpetuity?

Bill

oooops - I should have specified $100 billion per YEAR in perpetuity.

loganzane

I was actually looking for this resource a few weeks back. Thanks for sharing with us your wisdom.This will absolutely going to help me in my projects .

Scott

Great article about the probabilities of such a disaster.

It's disconcerting how this is yet another "million to one" accident according to BP, given their horrendous safety record.

sto credits

Hope that similar things do not happen.

sto gold

I hate the disaster ,I hope there is no disaster,thank you for your information.

tera gold

Recently a number of similar incidents, it should be an alarm awakens.

Jesse the Best Motor Oil Review Guy

Infrequent high risk events are difficult to place a probability on but this reminds me of the comments from Richard Feynman on the NASA Challenger disaster review... he said it was going to happen again and NASA provided their analysis that it was highly improbable... well it happened again. In the case of this oil spill it would be prudent to be properly prepared for another.

Probabilities of 1/10,000 to 1/20,000 are reasonable and the 1/1,000,000 figure is just your typical corporate CEO rhetoric.

Asics shoes

Human nature is the most pathetic: We always dream of the horizon of a wonderful rose garden, not to enjoy today on the open window of our roses.

http://www.yaahshoes.com/

nfl jerseys

First, the traditional beauty of old never. If you have a big house full of children and family members over several generations, or a small apartment, so that you and your spouse, a glass water jug is the perfect accent to any decor

Dominic

At least it is capped now.

ffxiv gil

We always dream of the horizon of a wonderful rose garden, not to enjoy today on the open window of our roses

BP Blows T-shirts

Lets just hope that all of this oil spill mess that really affect our marine and aquatic wildlife will be totally cleaned up.

Pandora Bracelet

it is very difficult to estimate with any precision what is the actual probability of highly infrequent events, and such a leak would fall within this class. So if the annual probability were really more like 1/10,000 rather than 1/1,000,000, the expected discounted cost would be about $200 million, a more considerable sum.

OSHEM Solutions

The BP Oil spill shows that safety is not an add on, its just good business. Put aside the repair costs, the clean up costs, the compensation that will be paid. You can even forget the loss of production. How much damage has been done to be BP brand out of this incident. They have received negative publicity day after day, week after week, right across the world.

Risk Management, Emergency Preparedness and Safety Compliance are not nice-to-haves, they are crucial components to ensuring an organisation's sustainability.

Peter Gaul
OSHEM Solutions

NFL Jerseys

Risk Management, Emergency Preparedness and Safety Compliance are not nice-to-haves, they are crucial components to ensuring an organisation's sustainability.

christmas gift basket ideas

I really enjoyed reading your blog entry about font stuff. I work on websites for the university I attend, and always enjoy reading about typography.

Supra Shoes

Your article makes me feel my own shortcomings,support your article forever.

Supra Shoes

Your article makes me feel my own shortcomings,support your article forever.

lower back pain

Probabilities of 1/10,000 to 1/20,000 are reasonable and the 1/1,000,000 figure is just your typical corporate CEO rhetoric.

Melissa Bremer

This season the going has not been so good for Berba. Berbatov has been generally an overrated player in my opinion. Also, I always sensed that Dimitar Berbatov really should have been shown the door instead of Carlos Tevez. Actions speaks more louder than words. Currently, there exists too much competetion in the strikers line up. Hernandez, Obertan, Macheda and Bebe can easily fill up any vacancy. Berba wont be missed and infact we'll become much better off with the final result. There are actually younger players who are willing to give 110 PERCENTS for United and I have never felt Berbatov do this even when he has scored goals for us. If Berba is smart which I dont think he is, this is the correct time for him to move on as he's not getting any younger and famous.

Shelia

I define soviet-style capitalism as economic behavior driven by unbounded greed, devoid of ethical consideration, purely selfish in nature, with concern only for short-term profits, and with no thought to the long-term interests of clients, minority shareholders, or society in general.

air jordan

What a great blog!There have a chance that we can have an furthur exchanges and cooperation.I will always pay attention to your blog.you should update it on time.I support you forever.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Become a Fan

May 2014

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31