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05/20/2012

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charlie

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Anne Roberts

I think the whole process of Greece leaving Euro will cost them but it will help in the long run.

NC Law

Everyone seems to agree that it would be difficult, but it is still the most plausible solution to the problem.

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Ich denke, der gesamte Prozess von Griechenland verlassen Euro wird sie kosten, aber es wird auf lange Sicht zu helfen.

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Jeder scheint zu bestätigen, dass es schwierig sein würde, aber es ist immer noch die plausibelste Lösung des Problems.

Terry Bennett

The economics have been spelled out, but it appears that the sociological aspects will control in the short term.

Greeks have pride, as a longstanding society. (Personally, I don't see where there's much to brag about in a bunch of hifalutin' Hellenic city-states built on slavery a few thousand years ago, but apparently some consider it the pinnacle of civilization to date.) Their pride is going to force their hand. Judge Posner is right that decoupling is an elegant solution, because it allows them to save face right now rather than continue to be chided by the stronger member countries currently acting in loco parentis - and it then forces them to do what they need to do.

Right now, the Greeks and their borderline communist system are reaping the benefit of being hooked to the big engine and are being pulled along, sort of like the weakest marine in a platoon. Greece as part of the EU retains bragging rights; Greece on its own is a weakling. The puniest guy in a motorcycle gang still gets to ride with the big dogs and wear the jacket, and cop the 'tude when somebody hassles him.

Once Greece haughtily robs itself of this big asset, the protection of the pack, then it has to fix itself, on its own, and sociologically that is going to be quite iffy. These people are now programmed for laziness and entitlement, and the private sector, the modern slave class on whose backs this luxury rests, will be driven to exhaustion. They could suddenly start acting responsibly and productively, and pull themselves out of their hole, but I rather expect them to try every possibility to keep the party going, digging the hole that much deeper before reality sets in and they either retool themselves to pull their own internal economic weight or collapse into anarchy.

In response to our own financial mess, the U.S. government had the same response - keep the party going by propping up the system with TARP et al. I don't remember anyone in government saying, "Let's start today and take our medicine and recognize our mistakes and change our ways and be more fiscally responsible." What I heard was, "Throw more stimulus and deficit spending at it." One of the big reasons new growth has been slow in coming is that many millions of American individuals and companies decided on their own in the last 4 years to become grownups and pull their own financial houses into order, intuitively rejecting the government's message that we should all get out there and spend ourselves into more debt and get back to 2006-type economic frenzy. The upside of that is that personal debt has come more under control, which I believe bodes well for the long term. I doubt the Greek populace has the instincts to contract itself similarly until absolutely forced to do so, at which point it is destined to be most unpleasant.

NEH

Terry, As for the U.S. problem, it's primarily due to the un or under funded "War Mandate" that's cost us at least thirteen trillion dollars over the last ten years. That coupled with massive corruption and financial shenanigans in the Finanacial/Commercial Industry (which is still going on as evidenced by the current JP Morgan/Chase fiasco). All of which has lead to a collapse in Real Estate value, 401K values, Savings, and the availability of Loans. Resulting in a depreciation in individual net worth and collapse of individual purchasing power and it's stimulative effect on the Economy.

Austerity? It's only going to make the problem worse. And in most cases, already has...

Dennis Tuchler

In order to survive and prosper, Greeks have to wean themselves off the state and make some money through exports. But I wonder if their departure from the Euro will do anything more than send the population into a funk and to other countries.

With what will Greece bring in enough money to grow? What has Greece to sell? Mediocre to OK wine,
tourism, perhaps some valuable real estate for wealthy foreign vacationers. Are Greek workers productive? Will Greek politicians dare further the collection of taxes due from wealthy Greeks?

I think Greece is a broken country. Not even the Turks would want it back.

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Vielen Dank für einen anderen großen Blog. Wo sonst bekommen Sie diese Informationen in schriftlicher Form so vollständig aufzuhetzen? Ich schon immer gesucht haben.

Terry Bennett

NEH, it depends how you define "the problem". If you define it as not having any fun, then yes, austerity makes the problem worse. I feel the problem is a fundamental lack of responsibility at all levels - and I consider austerity a responsible step, aligning consumption with production and all that.

NEH

Terry, And what is Greece's largest industry? "Tourism". As for a classical analysis based on Industrial Production and export, Greece represents two percent or less of the E.U. output. Not a significant factor or value. As for "Fun" how else do you sell a "Tourist Destination" to a consumer that has become cash poor due to "Austerity"...

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Terry Bennett

NEH: Sorry, I was referring to your comment on "the U.S. problem". In the case of Greece, I expect tourism will increase under austerity because the cost of vacationing there will be depressed along with everything else. The locals will probably not be having much fun for a while.

Lorena Schroeter

The situation with the possibility that Greece can leave the Euro zone may have a damaging effect upon the European Union, causing immense losses but Greece can be straightened up returning back to its initial currency.

NEH

Terry, As for the U.S. problem, take a look at the latest unadorned report from the Congressional Budget Office which states bluntly; that if the "Roboeconomic Policy currently in force" that rescinds the Bush Tax Cuts, and automatically slashes Federal spending, will roll the Nation over into a Recession if not Depression in 2013. And we haven't even gotten out of this current Economic Fiasco...

So much for "Austerity" and "Tax Increases". Seems we're stuck between a rock and hard place due to bad planning and ideological lunacy...

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your website is so great that i love it very much. thank you for sharing it with us.Thanks for making the pattern available so quickly. Hm, maybe I can re-prioritize some projects. Who am I fooling? I'm going to go buy more yarn.

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I think it might be a mistake to focus on the debt held by students rather than total tuition costs. Some student hold lower debt than others because their parents made up the difference, but that causes its own set of problems for them.

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Dangrayson

Re: "What the Greek government needs somehow to do is prepare for the changeover in currencies in secret, so that euro holders are unable to transfer their euros abroad."

Are you really in favor of moves that would allow the Greek government to steal the wealth of the citizens that way? Such a theft would be evil.

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