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September 30, 2006

Response on Malaria and DDT-BECKER

Thanks for some informative comments. Clearly, I should have said the WHO rather than the WTO. I apologize for this carelessness that is especially disturbing to me since I often write about the WTO.

I also regret that I probably exaggerated how many lives could have been saved over the years by extensive use of DDT spraying in houses. However, I am not guilty of saying that DDT spraying alone would do the job, for I did say that mosquito nets and drugs are also useful. A combination is the best approach, but these other methods are just not a good enough substitute for DDT spraying. So I do stand behind a claim that opposition to DDT spraying by many organizations caused a very large number of needless deaths from malaria.

Does the recent WHO statements supporting the use of DDT in homes reflect a change in attitudes toward DDT home use by this organization? One strong critic of my discussion points out several errors in what I said, and I am indebted to him for these corrections. However, he is inconsistent on this issue of whether the WHO has "changed" its position. On the one hand, he says that "The WHO…has always supported its use" (that is, DDT spraying), but then quotes with approval a statement by another critic of DDT spraying that "The World Health Organization's new (!) stance on DDT" (my parenthesis). "New" or not new, that is the question? I was wrong to say that the WHO had banned the use of DDT in homes until recently. However, it is accurate to say I believe that the WHO had not strongly endorsed its use until a few weeks ago, and that many donor agencies were for this reason reluctant to finance purchases of DDT for household spraying.

One commenter challenged me (and his challenge was very well answered by another commenter) as to whether DDT house spraying does pass a relevant benefit-cost criterion. Accepting his assumptions, DDT spraying would cost $12 per year per person. That amount seems to be a highly worthwhile expenditure if we relate it to estimates of the value of saving the lives of young persons even in very poor countries. Of course, a full analysis would require knowing the money value placed on their utility by people in poor countries (my paper with Rodrigo Soares and Tomas Philipson in the March 2005 issue of the American Economic Review on declines in mortality in poor countries tries to measure utility value of improved life expectancy, not improvements in GDP alone), the probabilities that such spraying would save lives or significantly improve the quality of lives, the productivity of alternative uses of these funds, such as to find an effective vaccine, and so forth. I, have not, nor has any one else to my knowledge, made these calculations, but if spraying only costs $12 per year, and it is effective in significantly cutting deaths from malaria (some commenters dispute that), to me that seems like a great use of private or public funds.

Posted by Gary Becker at 07:55 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)

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The New York Times magazine did an exhaustive feature on DDT and malaria control a few years ago. The full article is here.

Some facts in the article contradict assumptions some commenters have been making. For example, bed nets only protect against mosquitos if they've been sprayed with insecticide. It's the insecticide, not the net, that's important. Further, the cost of spraying DDT is about $1.70 per person per year, not $12.

"Just make a vaccine!" is a cry we've been hearing for many years, and it's an easy one to make, because it devolves effort from an involved and activist citizenry to a few scientists in labs. Consciences clear, environmentalists can move on. The only real solution to the malaria problem will come with the elimination of the species of mosquitos that carry the disease. Olivia Judson has proposed such a scheme involving "knockout" genes that would induce fatal defects in mosquitos after the genes became widely prevalent in those populations. Another proposal involves irradiating male mosquitos to render them infertile, and then airdropping them in malaria-prone regions. Since female mosquitos only mate once (even if the mating is unsuccessful), the number of larvae forestalled by this is enormous, and could lead to extinction very quickly. Mosquitos have killed more humans than all the wars in all of history. We drive thousands of species to extinction each year accidentally; I'd judge it a tough argument that we can't eliminate one particularly deadly species on purpose.

And now that I've contributed that much serious input, let me just say that if we'd disregarded Rachel Carson's warnings about a "Silent Spring," we'd have been spared the threat of both malaria and avian flu. A silent spring is a disease-free one.

Posted by Milk for Free at September 30, 2006 10:34 PM | direct link

The application of DDT in combination with other forms of vector control is imperative in saving lives in the future but it is highly unlikely that the malaria mosquito can be led to extinction. The correct approach ought to be the reduction in the number of mosquitoes to such a level that there is a break in transmission of the parasite. The pursuit of the extinction of mosquito may be tempting as a decisive solution but the odds are that it is virtually unattainable.

Posted by owinok at October 1, 2006 12:34 AM | direct link

1. Although sterile insect techniques (SIT) can be a very useful tool in controlling certain types of pests, they never lead to complete extinction.


2. There are four different malaria parasites with vastly different lethalities -- the type of malaria endemic in Sub-Saharan Africa is deadliest to chldren under the age of five but actually doesn't kill many adults (though it makes them quite sick, and repeatedly). This is not to deny the tremendous human toll of the disease; it is only to point out that it is hard to say exactly how many lives are lost (or saved) without specifying exactly which strain of parasite one is discussing.


3. A reasonable estimate of the material cost of IRS (interior residual spraying) vs. LLN (long-lasting insecticide treated nets) was included in a relatively recent Ugandan Ministry of Health report. That report estimated the 6-month material cost of DDT at around $2 per household, while the cost of a LLN (which lasts about 4 to 5 years) was about $6. IRS needs to be repeated every 6 months, and the cited cost is only for the insecticide itself and does not include the cost of spraying. It is generally acknowledged that the logistical cost of arranging an army of sprayers who can visit an area twice a year is considerable. The distribution cost of a LLN is quite a bit lower: basically, an entire truckload of LLNs can be delivered by one man while that same man with a sprayer can cover about eight dwellings per day. IRS can be especially effective when malaria is episodic and short-term protection (for, say, one season) is needed in order to "break" an epidemic. WHO has always supported this particular use of IRS. In Africa, LLNs work especially well because even one net in a household can be targeted to the children under age five.

Posted by Robert Chung at October 1, 2006 01:32 AM | direct link

I am not inconsistent on the question of whether the WHO has changed their position. Here is my comment from your previous post:

The WHO (World Health Organization not WTO) recently decided to place more emphasis on DDT spraying but has always supported its use and in any case DDT is not a magic bullet against malaria.

I don't understand how you could read that as an assertion that there had been no change in their position on DDT.

I am glad that that you have corrected some of your errors but I am perplexed that you continue to claim that "opposition to DDT spraying by many organizations caused a very large number of needless deaths from malaria." In fact, restrictions on spraying DDT have, on net, saved many lives by preventing the development of resistance to DDT.

As for the economics of malaria control interventions,the most up-to-date analysis I am aware of was conducted by the Disease Control Project. They found that the cost per DALY (Disability-Adjusted Life Year) was $11 for deltamethrin-treated nets, $9 for DDT in areas of seasonal transmission of malaria and $18 for DDT in areas of constant transmission. There are some large uncertainities on these numbers, but they certainly suggest that the best policy is nets in areas of constant transmission and DDT in areas of seasonal transmission, which was the WHO's previous policy. The new policy of DDT everywhere seems to lack scientific support. The new policy was adopted for political reasons (to get the support of the US), not scientific ones.

Posted by Tim Lambert at October 1, 2006 02:08 AM | direct link

Milk for free cites Tina Rosenberg's NYT article "What the World Needs Now Is DDT". Unfortunately the article is inaccurate and misleading.

What the world needs now is not DDT but money to combat malaria. It doesn’t matter that much whether it is spent on bed nets or spraying with DDT or other insecticides—they all work and the costs don’t differ that much (and DDT isn’t necessarily the cheapest solution). Rosenberg makes it look like that all that is preventing malaria from being controlled is environmentalists’ prejudices against malaria and that just isn’t true.

Posted by Tim Lambert at October 1, 2006 02:16 AM | direct link

The concept of Food Triggers in health science is not new. Simply put, a food trigger can be any food that causes or triggers a reaction or change in the body.

Posted by Imaad Machiwala at October 2, 2006 01:18 PM | direct link

When it's malaria, it's Africa! So we better leave these old fashion approaches. We will never solve the African problem with DDT or even a vaccine without a political change in Africa. I am from Angola and there they say malaria is a problem of urbanism! In fact, those who live in "slum villages" are more likely to get ill than those who live in better places. Personally i believe DDT could solve part of the problem, but better governance is the key, because malaria is really simple to be treated and avoided.

Posted by Jose Costa at October 3, 2006 03:35 PM | direct link

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