I don't know if that really answers Posner's (and my) concerns. IANAE*, but I don't think you need to be to have concerns about the basic limitations on water, food, arable land, and land for living on. If anything, it's my opinion that focus on the financial over-complicates the issues involved here.

Certainly innovations in technology and financing make a ..

difference - witness the success of Grameen Bank - but focus for a minute on the huge numbers of young men in China and India who are unemployable, and will never marry (thanks to the gender imbalance caused by sex-selective abortion there). I can only see two ways forward for them: emigration, or the Army - neither of which bode well for neighbouring countries.

* I Am Not An Economist.

"...Yet, I would not overemphasize this point since India, which is a rather densely populated country with only limited high quality land and other natural resources, showed that it could grow rapidly once it reformed economic policies. "

How much of India's growth has been the result of its own economic policies or the result of foreign investment, a combination of both, or other factors? And how much of India has actually seen "growth," or are we looking at "growth" as a generalized concept which doesn't consider the growth disparities in India?

"So I am doubtful whether India's large and rapidly growing population had in the past hindered its growth in per capita incomes or improvements in health of the average Indian family."

I'm not doubtful of this at all. Where were the jobs? Why did so many of its educated leave for other countries? What is the health of the average Indian family? Is it better in more populated parts of India? Someone must have data on this.

Perhaps I'm missing something here, but I was under the impression that the overpopulation has had a negative impact on the quality of life and economy in India, while other factors, unrelated to population size, have countered these effects and brought positive economic changes in some areas in India.

Specifically, what is the effect of India's relatively large resources for training people in the sciences, and its education system? What about the private businesses that have invested in India? I am not an economist either.

Brian T

I think the focus on the financial aspects of the problem is useful, though complicated, because the price of resources influences the rate they are pulled out of the ground, and the timing at which recycling and substution of alternative resources and technologies becomes economic. It is dangerous to over-simplify complex things like resource allocation.

Basil Jason Go
Metro Manila, Philippines

More Furious than a Forest Fire

People who have read population control articles have probably heard of the English economist Thomas Malthus who proposed that population increases at a geometric rate whereas food supply grows at an arithmetic rate if factors are held constant. Probably, Malthus’ Principle of Population is not so improbable after all when studies show that approximately 790 million people in the developing world are still chronically undernourished, almost two-thirds of whom reside in Asia and the Pacific.
In the Philippines, due to the Church’ heavy opposition against artificial birth-control methods and the masses’ lack of sex education, the problem of overpopulation continues to persist. What makes matters worse is that the natural family planning methods are somewhat hard to instill in the minds of the Filipinos especially those that are not so educated. What solution do I propose then? I believe that the government should start implementing a policy similar to that of China’s one-child per family. I repeat similar and not exactly, since what right do we have to impose how many children a couple would want to have? Hence, I am not saying that the government should immediately implement the one-child per family policy here. I think it would be best if the Filipino community would first agree upon a consensus on the number of children they would want to have.
In line with this, the current tax system in the Philippines of giving a tax exemption of P8,000 per dependent child not exceeding four seems not to be very effective since there are a lot of people still have more than four children. Instead, I think it would be better if from the agreed upon number, the government can give more incentives to those who follow the quota. Given this, it would be more attractive for the people, especially the masses, to have lesser children. For instance, if the set quota of children is four and the family only has two children, then there should be an additional incentive for this family. Unlike China’s one-child policy, I believe that there should be no penalty if a couple exceeds the quota since the couple has the right to have as many children as they want. Although this entails a lot of discipline for those who will implement it, I believe that this a step in the right direction for curbing the population growth in the Philippines.
Currently, the Philippine population is around 89 million, growing at a rate of 1.8 percent. In ten years, the population will reach 107 million, an increase of about 20 percent. Clearly, the figures speak for themselves. With the present population growth rate, the supply of resources such as food, shelter and clothing won’t be able to meet demand. Population growth is like a forest fire, we have to do something about it now. If we don’t, when is the right time?

Basil Jason Go
Metro Manila, Philippines

More Furious than a Forest Fire

People who have read population control articles have probably heard of the English economist Thomas Malthus who proposed that population increases at a geometric rate whereas food supply grows at an arithmetic rate if factors are held constant. Probably, Malthus’ Principle of Population is not so improbable after all when studies show that approximately 790 million people in the developing world are still chronically undernourished, almost two-thirds of whom reside in Asia and the Pacific.
In the Philippines, due to the Church’ heavy opposition against artificial birth-control methods and the masses’ lack of sex education, the problem of overpopulation continues to persist. What makes matters worse is that the natural family planning methods are somewhat hard to instill in the minds of the Filipinos especially those that are not so educated. What solution do I propose then? I believe that the government should start implementing a policy similar to that of China’s one-child per family. I repeat similar and not exactly, since what right do we have to impose how many children a couple would want to have? Hence, I am not saying that the government should immediately implement the one-child per family policy here. I think it would be best if the Filipino community would first agree upon a consensus on the number of children they would want to have.
In line with this, the current tax system in the Philippines of giving a tax exemption of P8,000 per dependent child not exceeding four seems not to be very effective since there are a lot of people still have more than four children. Instead, I think it would be better if from the agreed upon number, the government can give more incentives to those who follow the quota. Given this, it would be more attractive for the people, especially the masses, to have lesser children. For instance, if the set quota of children is four and the family only has two children, then there should be an additional incentive for this family. Unlike China’s one-child policy, I believe that there should be no penalty if a couple exceeds the quota since the couple has the right to have as many children as they want. Although this entails a lot of discipline for those who will implement it, I believe that this a step in the right direction for curbing the population growth in the Philippines.
Currently, the Philippine population is around 89 million, growing at a rate of 1.8 percent. In ten years, the population will reach 107 million, an increase of about 20 percent. Clearly, the figures speak for themselves. With the present population growth rate, the supply of resources such as food, shelter and clothing won’t be able to meet demand. Population growth is like a forest fire, we have to do something about it now. If we don’t, when is the right time?

Clearly, the figures speak for themselves. With the present population growth rate, the supply of resources such as food, shelter and clothing won’t be able to meet demand.

No, they really don't speak for themselves Basil. It isn't at all clear why you believe an extra 20% of people will produce a crisis, especially since similar growth has usually occurred elsewhere without running into the brick wall of resources you propose. Without any access to evidence other than knowledge that the Philippines is capitalist and democratic, I confidently predict living standards will increase for all or nearly all over the period you think a crisis will occur.

I recommend reading the studies done by Skinner on the effects of population on a groups social controls. The studies found that as the population grows, holding resources constant, social norms broke down. I agree that both technology and natural resources are the most important dictates of a countries threshold for population to be sustained. This of course is from environmental basis for which I'm not conserned. When the population threshold is crossed the population will decrease. My conserns are for the social norms of the people. Take Africa for example. The population is to large for the amount of resources to sustain everyone so you have war lords that recruite children at 8 years old and train them to butcher other people. Those children grow up to be rapist who produce more 8 year old butchers. The problem in this surcumstance is that there are no more social controls and thus nothing to fix the problem.

DR. CHRISTIAN C. SZELL, invented VITAZEST vitamin water in June 1944, at the studgart mills distillery, after which, he fled to  Uraguay, fleeing the allied troops in Germany.
This water was invented to help German soldiers win  on the battlefield. but Soviet advances prevented full manufacture of VITAZEST untill 1976.

http://www.geocities.com/dr_christian_christ_szell/index.html

thanks for your post.perhaps you will like abercrombie