January 4, 2009
Raise Gasoline Taxes Now? Posner's Comment
I agree with Becker that it would be a mistake to raise gasoline taxes. We're in the midst of a depression and threatened with deflation, which would be an especially ominous development. Deflation occurs when the price level falls, as can happen--as may be happening now--when demand falls so far that sellers, to avoid complete ruination, slash the prices of their goods by extreme percentages, such as 50 or 75 percent. With prices depressed, a given amount of dollars buys more goods--money thus is more valuable. Credit tends to dry up, since even if the nominal interest rate is zero, the real interest rate may be very high. Imagine, to take an extreme case, that a dollar will buy you a loaf of bread today but two loaves of bread in a year. Then to borrow a dollar today for repayment in a year at a nominal interest rate of zero amounts to borrowing at a real interest rate of 100 percent, because to have the loaf of bread today you will have to give up two loaves in a year.
When there is a danger of deflation, raising taxes increases the danger by reducing the demand for goods and services, in the present instance for gasoline and therefore also for cars, in particular cars made by the Detroit automakers because the gas mileage of their cars is inferior to that of the foreign cars. As demand falls, discounts will increase, so prices will continue to fall. Output will be falling too, but prices can fall faster than output, especially if sellers have swollen inventories because they did not anticipate a depression.
It is true that many "foreign" cars are actually manufactured in the United States. A mere substitution of those cars for Detroit-made cars would not reduce demand. Nor for that matter would a substitution of cars manufactured abroad, though by reducing employment in the United States such a substitution would deepen our depression. But the foreign cars (wherever actually made) would be sold at a discount too, in order to compete with the Detroit-made cars.
If gasoline taxes were raised to a very high level, there might actually be an increase in overall demand for cars if there are new cars that are enormously more fuel-efficient than existing ones. But the effect on the economy would still be negative, because people would have much less money to spend on other products.
Becker points to the possibility of a double whammy: raising gasoline taxes would not only reduce the demand for cars but by doing so it would increase the cost of the auto bailout. I am inclined to disagree if the bailout is understood as I hope it will be as intended simply to postpone the bankruptcy of the three Detroit automakers until the overall economic picture clarifies, rather than to reform and revitalize them. I don't think there would be any social benefit from saving the companies once the economy can absorb their disappearance or radical shrinkage without serious macroeconomic consequences. At that point, it should be sink or swim for them. To preserve them beyond that point by means of continuing federal grants would be merely to subsidize the United Auto Workers and the blue-collar workers whom the union represents, plus automobile dealers, the companies' managerial and white-collar employees, and the companies' stockholders and bondholders.
I hope that after the depression ends, however, serious consideration will be given to four types of tax (broadly defined), none a gasoline tax as such, that would reduce the demand for motor vehicles. One would be a tax on carbon emissions. The second a tax on traffic congestion. The third a tax in the form of highway tolls, to pay for the infrastructure projects that are part of the Obama Administration's "stimulus" (i.e., Keynesian--deficit spending) program. The fourth would be a tax on petroleum, designed to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and (relatedly) the income of the oil-exporting nations.
Posted by Richard Posner at 6:44 PM | Comments (52) | TrackBack (4)
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Comments
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Posted by RonnieTJ at January 4, 2009 9:08 PM | direct link
The high cost of gas this past year has seriously destroyed every budget from the average family to the largest of municipalities.The average family went broke at the pump alone, then added to the misery the higher cost of manufacturing and shipping was passed on to us at the checkout for every consumer product. School districts went broke keeping the busses on the road.One police dept in my area required officers to park their car for 15 minutes of every hour just to conserve .Lower prices are not here to stay.OPEC just announced another production cut.With all these bailouts in the billions why doesn't our nation see the need to bail us out of our dependence on foreign oil? I just read a really interesting new book called The Manhattan Project of 2009 Energy Independence Now by Jeff Wilson.I never realized it would only cost the equivalent of 60 cents per gallon to charge and drive an electric car. Also,The electricity to charge the car could come from solar or wind generated electricity. If all gasoline cars, trucks, and suv's instead had plug-in electric drive trains, the amount of electricity needed to replace gasoline is about equal to the estimated wind energy potential of the state of North Dakota.What powerful resources we have been neglected. The last economic stimulus package cost 168 BILLION and did absolutely nothing to stimulate our economy or create jobs.
Bail America out of its dependence on foreign oil. Wouldn't that make more sense?
www.themanhattanprojectof2009.com
Posted by sherry at January 4, 2009 9:55 PM | direct link
The high cost of gas this past year has seriously destroyed every budget from the average family to the largest of municipalities.The average family went broke at the pump alone, then added to the misery the higher cost of manufacturing and shipping was passed on to us at the checkout for every consumer product. School districts went broke keeping the busses on the road.One police dept in my area required officers to park their car for 15 minutes of every hour just to conserve .Lower prices are not here to stay.OPEC just announced another production cut.With all these bailouts in the billions why doesn't our nation see the need to bail us out of our dependence on foreign oil? I just read a really interesting new book called The Manhattan Project of 2009 Energy Independence Now by Jeff Wilson.I never realized it would only cost the equivalent of 60 cents per gallon to charge and drive an electric car. Also,The electricity to charge the car could come from solar or wind generated electricity. If all gasoline cars, trucks, and suv's instead had plug-in electric drive trains, the amount of electricity needed to replace gasoline is about equal to the estimated wind energy potential of the state of North Dakota.What powerful resources we have been neglected. The last economic stimulus package cost 168 BILLION and did absolutely nothing to stimulate our economy or create jobs.
Bail America out of its dependence on foreign oil. Wouldn't that make more sense?
www.themanhattanprojectof2009.com
Posted by sherry at January 4, 2009 9:56 PM | direct link
I believe that it is a real mistake to see deflation (i.e., decreasing money supply and attendant falling prices) as inherently detrimental to the economy. Falling prices are the corrective to a limiting of credit as people save more and financial institutions are more careful in issuing loans. As prices fall, people can afford to buy more, thereby stimulating the economy in a way that can be sustained over time as people are able and willing to buy goods and services that they truly desire and can afford. This adjustment process brings the economy back into equilibrium at a lower nominal price level but one that, once things have settled, brings the circular flow described by Jean Baptiste Say back into balance. The price level adjusting downward is the key factor in this naturally self-regulating process in the macro economy.
Attempts by government or the central bank (the Federal Reserve System in America) to artificially hold up wages or prices prevents deflation from recalibrating the price level and clearing the market.
Hearkening back to last week's discussion on unions, one big problem that unions introduce is the ability to resist falling nominal wages. Union members and officials may not realize that as prices fall their real wages will increase. This points a major cause of wage/price "stickiness" that Keynes identified as a problem in a slowing economy.
The problem with deflation that Judge Posner discussed is not really a problem at all in the long-run (and we are not all dead in the long-run) since during the free fall of prices, wages, and production in the early stages of a depression, savings can be salutary for the economy as a whole so that as the prices, wages, and production bottom out, there will then be sufficient savings built up to fund a sustainable recovery. The incentives that financial institutions face in the early stages of a depression change as the downturn hits its nadir. There is no reason to think that the dynamic Judge Posner described will last indefinitely IF prices and wages are allowed to fall freely.
Posted by Chris Graves at January 5, 2009 5:39 AM | direct link
Only partly tongue in cheek I wonder about Posner's "congestion tax" as it wouldn't be long before pols were heard to say "But that bottleneck is bringing in a mint!"
Also, I'd like to see his case for tolls being a better road tax than that of fuel taxes, as a toll is the same for efficient or inefficient cars. But, soon there is going to be the problem of the "plug-ins" not paying road taxes.
I do recall a case they made for privately financed toll roads and bridges but especially since seeing what's happened with Enron and the current Mess, I'd just as soon see our roads remain under government ownership.
Posted by Jack at January 5, 2009 8:08 AM | direct link
Posner's whole paragraph containing "I don't think there would be any social benefit from saving the companies once the economy can absorb their disappearance........" would seem to show that he's a judge and not an economist.
It may be that over time the whole interlocking mess of dealers might be better dismantled with new cars being ordered on the internet and built to order, with competing firms vying to do warranty work, but the rapid loss of the dealer network is a huge change that will be an economic blow to every neighborhood in our nation and the "transplants" or imports will get another leg up during the bankruptcy Posner favors.
The ramifications of the "transplants" or imports getting more of a leg up while our auto tech is sold off is something for more serious consideration than Posner's comments would indicate he has done.
Posted by Jack at January 5, 2009 8:23 AM | direct link
It seems to me that you're entirely ignoring the possibility of making a tax on gas (or equivalently taxes on congestion, oil &c) into a "purely Pigovian" tax package -- make it revenue neutral by simultaneously using its income to reduce other taxes (e.g. the payroll tax).
A tax package that's revenue neutral should have no substantial net effect on overall demand, but rather it would mostly "shape" demand away from goods and services deemed to have negative externalities and towards others. I'm aware of many general objections to Pigou taxes, but surely at the very least their possibility should be acknowledged in this context, be it only to point out why you think a Pigou approach would not work well in this case, no?
Posted by Alex Martelli at January 5, 2009 9:16 AM | direct link
Jack,
We're wandering pretty far from the main topic of the post here, but the ability to order new cars directly from the manufacturer on the web will not eliminate the existing dealer network. Some customers, maybe even most customers, will still want to see the car they are about to buy and to get the service and convenience that good dealers offer. Overriding the dealer-protection laws will put consumers' interest ahead of dealers', but that will leave a substantial niche for brick-and-mortar dealers.
Posted by Bill C. at January 5, 2009 10:21 AM | direct link
Jack,
We're wandering pretty far from the main topic of the post here, but the ability to order new cars directly from the manufacturer on the web will not eliminate the existing dealer network. Some customers, maybe even most customers, will still want to see the car they are about to buy and to get the service and convenience that good dealers offer. Overriding the dealer-protection laws will put consumers' interest ahead of dealers', but that will leave a substantial niche for brick-and-mortar dealers.
Posted by Bill C. at January 5, 2009 10:23 AM | direct link
Now would be a good time to mandate a switch to auto registration fees and insurance policies whose premiums are figured "by the mile" instead of annually, so that folks will not be encouraged to to drive more than they really need to. Insurance can now be bought on a per mile basis in Texas through www.milemeter.com, but it is not yet generally available.
Furthermore, now would be a good time to stop subsidizing and start taxing all the breeding, which presents not only a threat to the climate, but also to all other living creatures on earth.
The first thing a group of people stranded at sea in a liferaft should do is stop all the breeding!
Posted by jimbino at January 5, 2009 10:29 AM | direct link
Now would be a good time to mandate a switch to auto registration fees and insurance policies whose premiums are figured "by the mile" instead of annually, so that folks will not be encouraged to to drive more than they really need to. Insurance can now be bought on a per mile basis in Texas through www.milemeter.com, but it is not yet generally available.
Furthermore, now would be a good time to stop subsidizing and start taxing all the breeding, which presents not only a threat to the climate, but also to all other living creatures on earth.
The first thing a group of people stranded at sea in a liferaft should do is stop all the breeding!
Posted by jimbino at January 5, 2009 10:30 AM | direct link
Now would be a good time to mandate a switch to auto registration fees and insurance policies whose premiums are figured "by the mile" instead of annually, so that folks will not be encouraged to to drive more than they really need to. Insurance can now be bought on a per mile basis in Texas through www.milemeter.com, but it is not yet generally available.
Furthermore, now would be a good time to stop subsidizing and start taxing all the breeding, which presents not only a threat to the climate, but also to all other living creatures on earth.
The first thing a group of people stranded at sea in a liferaft should do is stop all the breeding!
Posted by jimbino at January 5, 2009 10:31 AM | direct link
The Luddites above should all go move to Zimbabwe or some similar utopia where they may put the self-sacrificing frugality they espouse into practice. Hypocrites.
Of more interest is Posner's call for four types of tax that would reduce the demand on motor vehicles. Let us set aside the political factions in this Nation who would prefer to limit the mobility of the populace, and thus force us into urban rabbit warrens. A topic for another day. To address Posner's four taxes on their dubious merits --
"One would be a tax on carbon emissions."
A bad joke based on junk science. Cattle ranchers would bear a heavy burden, to be certain, due to CH4 emissions. But Posner evidently would pick and choose among carbon compounds that should, or should not, be taxed.
"The second a tax on traffic congestion."
And how is this fabulous revenue raiser to be implemented? If reducing traffic congestion is the aim, the very simple solution is to raise the proficiency requirements and fee to get a driver's license.
"The third a tax in the form of highway tolls, to pay for the infrastructure projects that are part of the Obama Administration's "stimulus" (i.e., Keynesian--deficit spending) program."
This may be the least objectionable tax that Posner proposes. But why limit the tolls to highways? Just put a toll booth at the end of everyone's driveway.
"The fourth would be a tax on petroleum, designed to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and (relatedly) the income of the oil-exporting nations."
If Posner is suggesting a tax on imported petroleum, hurrah! Long overdue.
Posted by Jake at January 5, 2009 9:41 PM | direct link
Bill, Thanks, and it is the protection that apparently means there are 3 times as many dealers as is justified by the market and that someone is paying a fortune in floor plan financing.
I've heard of an internet "seller" whose role is actually that of finding THE car for the customer and earning something for making the deal happen. Turns out that despite the huge inventories it's still difficult for the buyer to find one optioned to his satisfaction.
I guess I'm thinking something as you propose but with sort of a Dell Computer-like made to order system too.
Also, I didn't mean to minimize the value of dealer support as they spend a lot keeping their mechanics up on all the new systems.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jimbino: perhaps a decade ago financial writer Andrew Tobias made a strong case for no-fault pay at the pump insurance. Insurers would bid on risk pools and adjusting would be done much as today.
As you indicate it would increase variable costs and decrease fixed costs..... along with giving a stronger incentive for driving the highest MPG car in the driveway.
It would save a lot on insurance costs too, by reducing litigation, having no un-insured drivers and make it cheaper for those who must have a truck or van for work to have a mileage buggy or hobby car to run errands. Unfortunately Tobias' great idea was no match for insurance lobbyists.
.... BTW re: "Lifeboat" are you aware that Europeans and the US/Canada have shrinking populations; but for immigration? ALL the growth is from immigration.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jake sez:
"The fourth would be a tax on petroleum, designed to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and (relatedly) the income of the oil-exporting nations."
If Posner is suggesting a tax on imported petroleum, hurrah! Long overdue.
......... Jake we've likely cornered ourselves on import tariffs by WTO membership, but since we produce only 30% of what we consume/waste we can use any of the domestic taxation plans suggested and most of the time benefit from a "tariff" on the 70% that is imported. And, truth is we've plenty of need for the taxes on our domestic 30%. Note that if we achieved, say, a 10% reduction in consumption that it would come off the imported oil and keep billions in our economy.
Posted by Jack at January 5, 2009 11:34 PM | direct link
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Posted by HoossyborePox at January 6, 2009 3:58 AM | direct link
thanks
Posted by اس ام اس عید نوروز at January 6, 2009 5:01 AM | direct link
Jack,
"I guess I'm thinking something as you propose but with sort of a Dell Computer-like made to order system too."
See the excerpt below from a NPR "All Things Considered" progam on 18 December.
[Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, says there must be a better way.
Lately, he has been thinking about how to streamline the sales of new cars. He says car companies should imitate computer makers, which often let buyers order — and customize — new computers online.
"You could envision, certainly, cars being made that way," Atkinson says. "You put an order in online, customize it, you get your bill, you just pay it and it's delivered to your house two weeks later."
Not only would this cut down on inventory expenses; the carmakers would get a more real-time sense of consumer demand. The big problem with this idea is that it is illegal.
"Every single state prohibits any automobile producer from selling a car directly themselves, including selling it directly online," Atkinson says.
Atkinson is talking about franchise law. Over the past century, car dealers have secured a complex web of state laws that protect them from being undercut — by the carmakers themselves, and more recently, by people trying to sell new cars online.]
Posted by Bill C. at January 6, 2009 10:58 AM | direct link
Surprisingly, Posner misses the point in arguing against a gas tax. The total amount of taxation is orthogonal to the type of taxation. You can raise gas taxes, cut other taxes (e.g. on work and investment) and reduce total taxes, if that's your goal.
The majority of economists favor Pigovian taxes like a gas tax, in order to reduce negative externalities. The fact the the revenues can be used to offset other taxes only makes it more attractive, and this is equally true during a recession or depression.
Let's hope Posner and Becker think this through more carefully so their words don't end up being used by opponents of sensible economic policies like a shift to more Pigovian taxes like the gas tax.
Posted by a student of economics at January 6, 2009 1:16 PM | direct link
How about a progressive tax based on consumption. Scan your driver's license at the pump. The first 10 gallons in a week, no tax. The next ten gallons in that week, current rates. Anything above, a much higher tax. Next week, the meter resets. Commercial use exempted. Credits available for indigent.
This would increase the spread between low use and high use of gasoline; making it more nonlinear. This would speed up the break-even point with purchase of expensive new technologies. Further, you could even keep your old clunker. Just bring along a friend to carpool (with his driver's license.) The old 10mpg car would get an effective 18mpg with two people traveling.
Posted by Jeff Segal at January 6, 2009 4:38 PM | direct link
Jeff writes:
"How about a progressive tax based on consumption. Scan your driver's license at the pump. The first 10 gallons in a week, no tax. The next ten gallons in that week, current rates. Anything above, a much higher tax. Next week, the meter resets. Commercial use exempted. Credits available for indigent."
Setting aside the somewhat scary implications of scanning your driver's license at the pump so the government can track your gasoline consumption (and location and heaven knows what else), Jeff's idea has some appeal.
But why exempt "commercial use"? Who gets to decide what is "commercial use"? And who would monitor and enforce that definition of "commercial use"? A "commercial use" tax exemption would undermine the policy aim for the very same reason that Detroit's production of light sport utility vehicles (SUVs) falls into a CAFE exception that swallows the rule.
Second, why should indigent people get an exemption from this progressive gas pump tax? The better question is whether society should view truly "indigent" people as entitled to have cars to drive around in.
Posted by Jake at January 6, 2009 8:50 PM | direct link
Bill; Thanks, that's what I was thinking about and have recently become aware of the protectionist laws. Ha! but now I'm getting nervous about a 1-800 No Help line. But seriously the current system does seem legislated "buggy wheel."
Jake/Jeff: I'm not too fond of the "progressive" or rationing? type of tax either. We live in a huge country where it's necessary for some to live far from work or other destinations.
Instead of giving "commerce" a break, I'd favor their deal being the same as that of the individual and I'd CERTAINLY get rid of the Hummer loophole!! My reasoning is that we use a LOT of fuel in commerce so I'd want them equally on board in OUR quest to conserve what we have left. As the vehicle used in commerce, itself, is a deductible item companies can turnover their fleets faster than is typical for the individual.
Posted by Jack at January 7, 2009 1:16 AM | direct link
A question: Both Posner and Becker assumed that increasing fuels taxes would create an added burden. But would it?
Aside from politics and theater; if we designed the right Pigovian mix of taxes (and "believe" in a functioning energy market) the added fuel tax should depress demand so ultimately we'd be buying oil cheaper and filling our own tax coffers instead of theirs.
Timing and expectations seems the trick here. Since we're stuck with the fleet we have for seven years or so we'd phase in the energy taxes over time, publish the plan and stick to it. With the volatility of "energy futures" and a "market" that is suspect, I'd favor one of the plans that would give us a somewhat predictable price range.
Posted by Jack at January 7, 2009 1:30 AM | direct link
I agree with Messrs. Becker and Posner that now isn't the time to raise gasoline taxes. If that were to be done the increase should be announced and phased in gradually over a 5-year period until pump prices approximated those in Europe. A phase-in would give car buyers and manufacturers time to adjust. However, increasing the gas tax apparently is a non-starter politically. Obama has ruled it out and there is little support in Congress.
Introducing a vehicle weight tax for non-commercial vehicles might be used to accomplish the same objective as increasing gas taxes. Phasing in a tax on vehicle weight would, by applying the laws of elementary physics, encourage buyers and manufacturers to make and buy lighter, smaller cars without getting the government into regulating the design process. And drivers would still be free to buy huge SUVs and Hummers, if they were willing to pay the weight tax, thus paying for the external costs of huge, gas-guzzeling cars and trucks. Moreover, this approach would meet the objection that higher gas taxes would be regressive.
Posted by Ralph Deeds at January 7, 2009 11:21 AM | direct link
Ralph, perhaps too much micro-management can be troublesome too. Parts of Europe used to have engine displacement taxes so by contrast to our lumbering V8's they built high rev, high stress "small" engines.
A weight tax might have to be modified for a car full of batteries or make the 400 pounds a CNG system might add to a car a disadvantage. Also, in rural areas where stop and go isn't as common wind resistance is a bigger factor than weight.
Ha! I'd be happy with our pols if they can get the big chunks right; some of the gas hogs you mention are apparently still eligible for the "over 6000 GVW" tax break that my accountant touted as making it cheaper for me to run a heavy truck than a medium sized convertible. "Write off!!" up to $100k for a pig while those driving regular cars are limited to under $30k. And, of course in business use the fuel and monster tires et al too are deductible, so my neighbors might be chipping in 40% of the total cost. Brilliant?
Posted by Jack at January 7, 2009 7:31 PM | direct link
Good points. I think they might be manageable except for your point about wind resistance which hadn't occurred to me. Increasing the gasoline tax would be the cleanest way to improve fuel economy. But that's apparently not likely from what I see. We don't need SUVs with so much horsepower that they accelerate like sports cars. I remember driving our family's '49 Ford and doing a bit of drag racing. I remember it as a pretty hot car for a four door family sedan. As I recall the horsepower was around 100 and it would do zero to 60 in around 14? seconds. I ripped the transmission out speed shifting.
Posted by Ralph Deeds at January 7, 2009 8:59 PM | direct link
Ralph! Ha! a bit of nostalgia! Since those Fords had centrifical weights on the clutch you could wind it up in low and with the right timing chirp the tires going into 2nd. Right?
And agreed on the SUV's.......... gawd, though an Alaskan, I'm in Tulsa just now and you'd THINK those driving 5,000 pounds would try to time the lights, but it's race to the light and slam the brakes on as if there were prizes for how long one sat at the next light. It's nuts really isn't it? A payload of one woman with a cell phone glued to her ear wheeling these pigs around like go-karts.
I looked up the curb weight of my 56 Chev of 3200 pounds, and wonder a bit how cars in that size range gained a 1,000 pounds despite having lighter V-6 and lot's of plastic or aluminum parts. Perhaps a bit of a tonnage tax is in order!
Posted by Jack at January 7, 2009 10:04 PM | direct link
Two things,
One-we are not in a depression.
Second, I just had to buy a car. I bought a new SUV, because that's the best choice for my family. It happens to be a diesel though, and gets 28 MPG on the highway. It is a foreign car, and is greener than any gasoline powered vehicle.
Posted by Jeff at January 7, 2009 10:43 PM | direct link
Personally I am in favor of higher gasoline taxes as long as the government rev
Posted by Nick Miller at January 9, 2009 3:19 PM | direct link
Sorry about my last post, my computer sent it prematurely. Personally I am in favor of higher gasoline taxes as long as the government revenue would be used to fund green energy causes. With oil infrastructure being as prevalent as it is it would be extremely difficult for a new eco-friendly energy source to make an entrance into the market.
Posted by Nick Miller at January 9, 2009 3:20 PM | direct link
Jeff, Great! Is it a VW? They seem to be leading the way with smaller, mass produced diesels that will comply with our air quality stds. "Detroit" has been relying on Cummins and other lower volume general purpose diesels for their P/U's and really should get on with a flexible, mass produced diesel to power their large cars, SUV's and P/U's.
Perhaps a GM, Chrysler combo could lead to such a product........ though with diesel now commanding a premium roughly equivalent to its increased efficiency, I suppose most buyers will not want to pay much of a diesel engine premium.
With your diesel likely to be on the road for 300,000 miles it has the additional green aspect of not having to be "recycled" via the junkyard for a long time, but that's not happy-making for your car dealer!!
As for not being in a "depression" I know the "economists" have a precise, fairly useless, rearward looking definition of -------- two quarters of no growth? but I don't know if they a "depression" criteria......... after all we have them so rarely these days.
Nick: "With oil infrastructure being as prevalent as it is it would be extremely difficult for a new eco-friendly energy source to make an entrance into the market."
.......... this surely brings up the topic of when "government" (Us and OUR? democracy?) should intervene in "The Market" leading the lemmings off a cliff that we've hardly been allowed to discuss for the last 25 years. Interestingly, to me! Scandi and other nations with fewer resources and and prospects for farming etc have been able to provide a standard of living close to that of the US by taking more control of the direction of their direction than the US.
Spending nearly double what they spend on H/C and three times what they spend on prescription drugs, many of which are made here, is surely an indicator that "the market" and accompanied by the lobbyists they can afford, is not in the best interests of the majority of our citizens.
Posted by Jack at January 9, 2009 6:08 PM | direct link
I like Posner's suggestions.
1 tax on carbon emissions.
2 tax on traffic congestion.
3 tax in the form of infrastructure e.g. highway tolls
4 foreign oil tax
These steps make sense and can be implemented in the real world except for #4 (explain this to the WTO). However - they should not wait till after the depression. They should be used to balance stimulus spending here and now (provided we tax the bad aka GM and support the good aka renewable energy and NOT the other way around).
Google CEO Eric Schmidt has made the economic calculation and reckons that the economy can make an overall profit and save about 800 billion in 22 years if we... Watch it - he talked in front of the Commonwealth Club a few weeks ago- Subject: Where would Google drill?:
http://fora.tv/2008/10/01/Eric_Schmidt_Where_Would_Google_Drill
The sooner we start supporting the "good" and taxing the "bad" - the better. E.g. Currently - millionaire farmers (who cause the most ecological damage via unsustainable 5 year plan-ecologics) have been receiving about $28 billion in subzidies per year. Livestock farming for example causes more CO2 than all cars, trucks and airplanes combines says the UN:
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000448/
No need and time to wait until AFTER the depression... tax the bad - subsidize the good... or do nothing! Especially during a recession with a potential d-word looming...
Posted by Hugo Pottisch at January 10, 2009 11:38 AM | direct link
NEWS FLASH! Technology breakthrough of the millenium by "Stanley Steamer Corp." obsoletes Internal Combustion Engines and the need for hydrocarbon fuel. So much for the need for a Gas Tax. What's the technology? Closed Loop Mini-Nukes powering steam turbines, reactor containment capable of withstanding 250mph impacts and collisions.
Oh! That's right, Nukes are off limits. Forget about it, Sorry!
Posted by neilehat at January 10, 2009 4:58 PM | direct link
It is hilarious to read the comments above. None of the commenters, I would wager, has ever produced a bushel of wheat or a barrel of oil, yet they inveigh against those who would produce such valuable goods. None, I would bet, has ever produced a damn thing beyond whatever their clever little fingers can tease from a computer keyboard. Who among them is John Galt?
Posted by Jake at January 10, 2009 5:07 PM | direct link
Neil....... It's interesting that Cheney came on strong for nukes eight years ago but none have been built. (Have I missed one?) I'm hearing that they are not cost competitive here. Costly to build and have a product life of a few decades? Don't really know.
Hugo sez:
The sooner we start supporting the "good" and taxing the "bad" - the better. E.g. Currently - millionaire farmers (who cause the most ecological damage via unsustainable 5 year plan-ecologics) have been receiving about $28 billion in subzidies per year.
........... Ha! frustrating eh? Mexico grows a lot of sugar which due to NAFTA-WTO or other is not salable. It would seem we'd kill several birds with a single stone by buying ethanol from Mex (8 times better feedstock than corn) providing some employment for them and a bargain for us. But then there is Archer Daniels army of lobbyists feeding both parties.
But now with oil so much lower I guess the bottom has dropped out of corn prices and after luring them into the SUV feeding biz, it's hard to give them a kick while they're down.......... and so it goes?
Jake: I have. For quite some time I "produced" the best and most healthful protein. The biz in recent years though has been "globalized" ie "gored" as have many other food production biz.
I'm hardly John Galt but did withdraw my meager talents from the corpies for somewhat similar reasons. I plowed through Atlas and most of Fountain many years ago when she appeared on black and white TV from time to time. Guess Gspan used to sip a a glass of wine with her while developing his paradigm which he admits to have been a bit flawed in terms of expecting "the market" to check itself.
Seems he and many others were surprised that today Moody's, S&P, and AM Best would sell off reputations that took a century to build to the highest bidder or that "investment bankers" thought they'd found the Grail and could lend at an asset/debt ratio of 1/30 plus, up from 1/5 or so. But I stray........ sort of; as Hugo and Schmidt suggest can we get back from the precipice and run what's left of our country with ethics, common sense, and harnessing the power of capitalism w/o crushing our people and community?
Posted by Jack at January 11, 2009 3:02 AM | direct link
Yes, I am with you too Jack. At the moment - I'd rather decrease the payroll or income tax and introduce a CO2 tax - than doing nothing. The combination would be perfect at the moment. You increase disposable income for consumers while making sure they invest it sustainably and without regulating them. But only one of the two (income tax decrease, CO2 increase) is not enough.
Having gone through an expensive war, a decline in equity/assets and an expensive bail-out - we need to balance the additional stimulus policies somehow. We have no reserves left from the good days and cannot/should not borrow internationally.
Current subsidize that do not aid consumers and job creation should be decreased as much as possible. Current agricultural and oil subsidies do not aid Obama's main goal of job creation anyway. Farming has lost almost all its jobs and I am not sure how many jobs are created in Saudi Arabia for drilling etc.
Posted by Hugo Pottisch at January 11, 2009 10:21 AM | direct link
Hugo; agreed. It feels like playing chess when out of position and down a couple of pieces; to prevail each move has to be very very efficient. Perhaps a stab at the core issues.....
Efficiency itself: At the cellular level much of our economy is stunningly efficient in areas such as developing I-phones or putting a Dell computer on the desk for $500. But at the overall level there's an institutionalized bloat exemplified by an "information economy" only now making plans for "broadband" use of electronic information in medical care. As for the "information economy" itself that is no longer setting world records in education, research, engineering and manufacturing, what are we "finding out?"
Income inequality: It's not a "class" issue but a structural problem. Overall productivity has doubled in the same 25 years that median income has been flat. Average income has risen with higher wages at the above average levels and much more at the top levels. A "rising tide" did not lift all the boats.
In the housing mess, one aspect among many, was that of the median home price outpacing its historical relationship with median income. Home prices topped out at median $250k while median income points to $170k median home price. Mechanical failure. And more of the same for median households chasing soaring college and medical costs. We can "try" to drive those costs down to affordability for a median income left behind, but! we'll fail. Unit costs will be very difficult to achieve in areas dominated by high wages and where mass production is nearly impossible. Median and lower wage have to rise; somehow.
Corruption, incompetence and the whopping ignorance of our leaders and the yakking class: For decades the fundamentals of this "unexpected" meltdown have been face up on the table though we might not have predicted that housing would go first or exactly how it would all occur. At least 10's of thousands of Americans had the data to see the cracks developing, including those charged with studying the system and providing oversight. Those few ringing the warning bell were muzzled or fired, while the rest continued to profit and others were negligent.
Somehow, (post Nixon??) "it's not against the law" "it's good enough" "and get a piece while you can" seems to have replaced "ya gotta make it right for the guy" often heard in the crafts when a shortcut is dismissed. From the top of our government, CEO's, down to street level we'll not prevail until "ya gotta make it right for the guy" and a sense of building a community, again, prevails.
Posted by Jack at January 11, 2009 2:14 PM | direct link
Posted by Anonymous at January 29, 2009 2:35 AM | direct link
Posted by حبي at March 8, 2009 8:51 AM | direct link
Posted by حبي at March 8, 2009 8:52 AM | direct link
Posted by حبي at March 8, 2009 8:52 AM | direct link
Badly need your help. Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
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Posted by Allison at April 5, 2009 12:39 AM | direct link
http://hubpages.com/hub/How-to-Reduce-CO2-Emissions-from-Non-commercial-Motor-Vehicles
Posted by Ralph Deeds at April 20, 2009 5:22 PM | direct link
Let me try another link to a web page which suggests a gross weight tax on private motor vehicles (with a credit for the weight of the batteries in electric and hybrid cars).
http://hubpages.com/hub/How-to-Reduce-CO2-Emissions-from-Non-commercial-Motor-Vehicles
How to reduce CO2 emissions from non commercial vehicles
Posted by Ralph Deeds at April 21, 2009 9:28 AM | direct link
Let me try another link to a web page which suggests a gross weight tax on private motor vehicles (with a credit for the weight of the batteries in electric and hybrid cars).
http://hubpages.com/hub/How-to-Reduce-CO2-Emissions-from-Non-commercial-Motor-Vehicles
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Glad you two agree on this topic.
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