Judge Posner,

As much as I enjoy reading your posts related to the financial crisis, I miss the days when you would write on completely different topics from one week to the next. You might discuss criminal law one week, Intellectual Property the next, doping in sports, and so forth. I miss the variety.

Alvin

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Few human influenza virus infection in pigs. But in recent years also found a number of human cases of swine flu infection, most of them with direct contact with sick pigs have been people.

This concern with political influence in the financial system seems of a piece with hand-wringing by others about regulatory over-reaction. Have you also written to warn about the dangers of the financial system taking control of the political system and making both subject to oligarchs?

Why is it that prices going down is so awful? Why are you so ideologically committed to preventing goods from becoming more affordable?

I sense you're leaning on some very rickety moneterist economics.

Roger,

The old military-industrial complex has now morphed into the financial-political complex with far worse consequences. It has destroyed both the financial system and any semblance of a representative democracy (republic). The Federal Reserve bank and its members and the government (the political machinery) are in a mutually protective relationship. Independence of our central bank? that is a bad joke. There are sufficient examples over the past 30 years to suggest that the political class uses the central bank to correct bad fiscal policy and the central bank does what it can to make the political hacks look good. Check out any congressional hearing at which the "witness" is a fed chairman. The name of the hearing chairan is always Peter and the name of the "witness" is always Paul.

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From adverse perspective, have you ever estimated the ponderance of possible consequences if Fed did not take these actions which allay its independence in your view?

Central banks are given independence of the political process, by the political process, for a purpose. When they fail to discharge that purpose satisfactorily, their independence is always at risk; and properly so.

Prima facie, many central banks and other financial regulators, including the Federal Reserve, failed in their regulatory purpose in the lead up to the current crisis. The political process (which also failed to perceive the dangers) now needs to consider what lessons are to be learnt, what changes are needed and which financial regulatory agencies should have their purposes revised.

All that seems business being conducted as it should be in circumstances which are unusual, but in their general characteristics almost inevitably recurrent.

As to the lessons to be learnt, I judge that the housing bubble as such was no proper business of the Federal Reserve. However, the creditworthiness of new financial instrumente, including those derived from mortgages, was proper Fed business and was neglected. That neglect allowed the leveraging which produced the housing bubble; and allowed the obscure tangle of derivatives liabilities.

It all seems too manipulative.

First, do we need a central bank given that we did not have one for the first 125 years of the nation's existence?
Second, if the answer to the first question is "yes", then why is the Fed currently allowed to stray from it's original mandate to be the lender of last resort, i.e., to provide liquidity for those institutions having such a problem? It is a far cry from that to the perfomance of the Federal Reserve in the last 6-8 monts including, as Judge Posner noted, the allegation recently made against Paulson and Bernanke concerning pressuring B of A to purchase Merrill.
I believe that the Framers would be astounded to see so much power concentrated in what are essentially private banks nominally run under government auspices.

Ah Yes ... "Politics does make for strange bed fellows". The real question becomes, "Can they get of that bed when it becomes necessary"? Only time will tell. For the good of the Nation, I hope the answer is yes and that the Private Financial Infrstructure does not subsume the Federal Reserve and Treasury. If they do, for the good of the Country, we may be forced to Nationalize.

As my friend P. J. O'Rourke says, "politics IS the problem".

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Neil: I keep wondering about the decisions not to nationalize. On the one hand it seems a cleaner way of mopping up the mess and then selling off the businesses in appropriate categories and in much smaller sized institutions.

But! how would it have looked for America's most "conservative" administration to come out padlocks in US Marshal's hands that Monday morn.

Too, we'd be saddled with the whole mess, I assume with "management" absolved of their negligence and lining up to be highly paid consultants on the government dime, err.... millions.

Do you get the feeling there is more rot than has yet been revealed by the excavation so far?

Ha! A friend has a temp job at Gottschalks helping to sell off the final inventory and fixtures; always a sad time in retail as folks are working hard for the same crummy pay with the result being that of being out of work in another rapidly contracting sectors. She wondered aloud as to what might be done with the space. Ahh, yes don't we all.

Jim: Liked your first post but let's agree that your friend O'rourke doesn't bring much wisdom with his "humor". Having a government, or any endeavor larger than a solo walk in the woods, without "politics" or politicians is a bit like trying to build a house w/o carpenters.

Posner asks whether the Fed is losing its independence. He shows some concern for their not being brave enough to have slowed housing, but I've more concern that they were asleep at the switch.

Most of us don't think too much about whether the roll-back of Glass-Steagal and the consequent mergers of goliaths and mixing of activities that were once competitors operating at arm's lengths was a good idea or not.

(I thought not, but my opinion might have been swayed by a strong suspicion that Phil Gramm has long used his PhD in econ for subversive and self-serving purposes only.)

Many of us have heard about derivatives, fewer of us lay-folk had some idea how they worked but VERY few would have had any idea how they were being worked and how massive was their impact on the worlds's financial sector.

MY concern is "independent" or not, that the Fed has the tools to know about these movements of capital....... or should I say analogs in the place of capital? But didn't? Or knew but didn't say or do anything? I mean come on Prof Posner this was not some small "error" of judgment as to whether to tighten by a few basis points.

Or put another way, while the Fed governors/bankers were meeting and discussing a bit of tweaking, did none of them know that the likes of Goldman were "printing" money at a rate never seen before? Did they not ask something along the lines of "Where the hell is all this money coming from to fund unprecedented numbers and amounts of mortgages?"

Or? perhaps in a casual moment over some lunch during the eight year period of unprecedented home appreciation in virtually every market, "How do you suppose these no doc loans for folks with credit scores under 50 are working out for those buying gobs of 'em?"

I understand that spotting bubbles MIGHT be difficult, but surely a few rudimentary econometrics combined with peering out the window once in a while would have divulged the anatomy of the housing/derivates ---- sorry I can only call it a Ponzi.

Posner seems still unaware that the non-banks "created" far more money via massively leveraged derivatives than did the Fed.

In short........ are we more fearful, as Posner suggests of their spinelessness, or of their ignorance? How could they have missed this for eight years when they and legions of assistants have access to the best of computer information and modeling?

In Posner's conclusion he suggests that when the Fed and a host of others finally woke up and did what was necessary and unavoidable that it was those actions that opened them up to being less "independent?"

How so? When they finally discovered that instead of being in a mildly inflationary environment that instead the world's "financial sector" was short a few tens of trillions and would be facing a deflation that would break eardrums unless something bold and clearly in their purview was done? Isn't that what we expect them to do? Independently?

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Jack, I have the dubious feeling that the current "Financial Infrastructure" was and has been built on shifting sands as opposed to bedrock. A Financial Infrastructue without an Agricultural, Industrial, or Commercial foundation and base is bound to fail. Alarming, huh?

Jack,

I think the point is that politics has become a "thing" for it's own sake and not in the rational service of the community. It is like saying all food has to be fried. When poor old Arlen Specter at age 80 thinks that there is no one in Pennsylvania who could do his job as well as he, there must be a certain delusion in the process. Or when Dick Durbin lists on his web site that his occupation is "legislator', things have become somewhat unbalanced.

I like Arlen Specter. I voted mostly for Democrats in the last election, Obama and all, But I voted for Specter because I think he does a good job, and does what he thinks is best for the country. If you use the criteria that he has to "think he's the best person in the world to represent Pennsylvania" you restrict your office to be held only by cocky idiots. He's far and away the person I feel has done the best job representing me. He was a Republican before the current asshats took over the party, then compromised with them for what I felt was too long already, while they used their power to undermine him. Obama is in the running for that crown, but if he wants it he'd better get his act together, and Arlen is in what looks to me like a SPECTACULAR bargaining position to help make things happen. And things need to happen, filibustering until this problem goes away is not acceptable.

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Note that the Fed supported the deregulation of Credit Default Swaps (CDS). These are probably the most important derivatives in financial markets today because they allow highly leveraged institutions like banks to hedge their risks. In a CDS, the risk of the loans that these banks make are taken over by counter-parties like AIG or foreign investors. The CDS is economically an insurance contract but it has never been regulated like insurance. It is also traded like a security but it was never regulated as a security either. It was traded, like most derivatives, under a caveat emptor philosophy. There lies the puzzle: why did it seem like a good idea to implement caveat emptor in the derivatives market when every analogous market had abandoned such a hands off approach?

It appears that the Fed came to see CDSs as a panacea for financial crises like Long Term Capital Management. Mr. Greenspan discussed CDSs after reviewing the LTCM incident;. Find below Mr. Greenspan's note on CDSs in his book, "The Age of Turbulence" at pages 371-72:

"A recent financial innovation of major importance has been the credit default swap. The CDS, as it is called, is a derivative that transfers the credit risk, usually of a debt instrument, to a third party, at a price. Being able to profit from the loan transaction but transfer credit risk is a boon to banks and other financial intermediaries, which, in order to make an adequate rate of return on equity, have to heavily leverage their balance sheets by accepting
deposit obligations and/or incurring debt. Most of the time, such institutions lend money and prosper. But in periods of adversity, they typically run into bad-debt problems, which in the past had forced them to sharply curtail lending. This in turn undermined economic activity more generally.
A market vehicle for transferring risk away from these highly leveraged loan originators can be critical for economic stability, especially in a global environment. In response to this need, the CDS was invented and took the market by storm. The Bank for International Settlements tabulated a worldwide notional value of more than $20 trillion equivalent in credit default swaps in mid-2006, up from $6 trillion at the end of 2004. The buffering power of these instruments was vividly demonstrated between 1998 and 2001, when CDSs were used to spread the risk of $1 trillion in loans to rapidly expanding telecommunications networks. Though a large proportion of these ventures defaulted in the tech bust, not a single major lending institution ran into trouble as a consequence. The losses were ultimately borne by highly capitalized institutions—insurers, pension funds, and the like—that had been the major suppliers of the credit default protection. They were well able to absorb the hit. Thus there was no repetition of the cascading defaults of an earlier era."

The idea, supposedly, was the CDS counter-parties were so rich that they could save the banks, and therefore the economy, in case of major defaults. This has turned out to be wrong. Too many counter-parties were duds.

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Uzair, CDS Derivatives: I loan Mr. X one million dollars. Mr. X sells the loan to Mr. Y, who turns around and sells it to Mr. Z in Antigua. Everyone's fat and happy. One problem, Mr. Z is a dummy Corporation, Mr. Y has fictious address on Wall Street and Mr. X is a name on a headstone. Question, "What happened to the million dollars"?
Answer, "I pocketed it".

Derivatives are nothing new, they're just a new twist on the old "Shell/Con Game". Now take this to the level of multi-trillion dollar level and one gets an understanding of the extent and depth of the problem.

Neilehat,

Nice explanation on derivatives. Probably spot on.

I have long thought that we in this country spend way to much attention to "what" happened and not enough on "why" it happened. According to Martha Stout, a psychologist at Harvard who has studied the subject for years, about 4% of persons are born without a conscience, sociopaths if you will. In the United States that would be 12 million persons, many of whom have talent and ambition and rise to positions of prominence in commerce and/or politics. Think the total combined population of New York and Chicago made up of Blagojevichs or Madoffs or Hitlers. Put a clever financial scheme in a few of their hands and Eureka!

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Jim, That's what Law and Regulation is all about. Somehow, we seem to have lost the concept somewhere along the road.

Neil: I suppose, legally, the question is did "someone" make the Ponzi just complex enough that nearly all of the perps can claim to have "just been doing their jobs" and to have known nothing? Yah...... sure! I'll bet Wall Street drinking holes rang with predictions of the whole thing tumbling down.

Neil: Ha! exactly.

"A Financial Infrastructue without an Agricultural, Industrial, or Commercial foundation. is bound to fail."

.......... did you see the huge fraction of ALL the profits in the US that accrued to the "financial sector?"

..... then we must have nearly as many clerks shuffling paper for medical "insurance" claims as we do in MFG.

..... then to wonder where we'd be if WE had to make all the labor intensive stuff made by China and India at living wages in the US. Does "capitalism" really work w/o slaves of some sort?

......One $10 million WS bonus "earned" in a year buys 20 million man hours of Chinese labor or the entire working lives of say 250 Chinese?

Jack, Point well taken! Who says Slavery is dead in the Modern World?

Now one can see and understand the reason why the Industrialized North was so adament about the elimination of Slavery in the South during the Civil War. That is, until, the Financial Infrastructure realized the windfall profits that could be realized from it's reintroduction.

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Neil and Jack,

So where is the moral and phisosophical leadership to encourage SOME form of economy working. If capitalism doesn't work,if socialism doesn't work, that leaves some form of volunteerism based on a moral or philosophical foundation. Just where will I find that?

Posner: We live at present in a blame culture, and really the Fed is lucky that so far most of the public's and the Congress's and the media's ire has been directed at the bankers rather than at Greenspan or Bernanke.

I believe the public, Congress, and the media give some consideration to the actors' economic incentives in directing their anger.

The performance incentives of the Federal Reserve Chairman are primarily reputational rather than monetary (at least that is the public perception). Unlike money, reputation cannot be "banked." It is not very plausible that Greenspan deliberately opted for short-term adulation knowing that he would be reviled in the long term. However it is entirely plausible that bankers opted for vast income in the short term (the booty from which they still retain) with reckless disregard for long-term consequences.

Also, Bernanke is not perceived to be pleading for a giant personal taxpayer bailout, on the grounds that the Fed chairman is essential to the economy and thus must be paid like a sultan.

Jim, In response to your question,

"Two systems are before the world;... One looks to increasing the necessity of commerce, the other to increasing the power to maintain it. One looks to underworking the Hindoo and the Chinaman, etc. and sinking the rest of the world to their level; the other to raising the standard of man through out the world. One looks to pauperism, ignorance, depopulation and barbarism; the other to increasing wealth, comfort, intelligence, combination of action and civilization. One looks towards universal war, the other towards universal peace. One is the Capitalist System, the other Socialism. Yet both have failed in their attempt. There is a third that must be tried, for it is the only one ever devised with the tendency of which was that of elevating, while equalizing the condition of man. That system is the "American School of Economics". The tenets of which have fallen by the wayside in the mad rush for more and greater profits and more and greater social programs."

Paraphrased from Henry C. Carey's, "The Harmony of Intersts; Agricultural, Manufacturing and Commercial" 1856

The basic tenets are:

1. Creation of Financial Infrastructure.
2. Creation of Physical Infrastructure.
3. The support of Industry, Agriculture and Commerce.
4. The creation and support of universal public education across all levels.
5. The support and advancement of Research & Development.

It's time we get back to the roots and stop playing with ideologically based Political Economic Systems like Capitalism or Socialism.

Do you have any thoughts on the move to audit the Federal Reserve, as proposed in HR 1207?

Jim, not sure how the future will manifest itself, but consider:

IF we have a recovery and the recovery is yet ANOTHER jobless recovery, it will be hard to overlook the fact of our tax dodging "mid-ocean" corporates OWNING such a high percentage of the factors of production that we've two choices:

One (disasterous in my opinion) is to continue on the track of ever widening gaps in wages and wealth that are likely to destroy even the illusion of something of a democracy.

Two, as upsets the corporate pandering "right" must be policies to knock some of the fruit down to where regular working folk DO have some sort of chance......... AND a bit of discretionary income to spend at the bazaar.

I'd suggest something much closer to a LIVING min wage, a strengthening of trade, and now, service unions, perhaps including collective bargaining for the beleagured "techies" who've been trained to thing they are "above all that" despite being pitted against Bangalore wages and H1B immigrants.

At macro or even the democratic level what we KNOW is that "it" will NOT work unless working folk get a fairer shake.

I suspect you or few others think we can afford to have WS, the medical sector and a few other sectors cream off as much are they have been doing and still leave us with a working economy?

My guess is that a lot of luster has been lost from the mantra of devil-take-the-hindmost, unregulated rape of the working folk.

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Just as an aside to the question of the Federal Reserve being in the clutches of the Financial Infrstructure; Dick Durbin, Senator from Illinois, who has been working trying to provide relief for beleaugered Homeowners facing Foreclosure from the Banks and Mortgage companies has said that Congressional Comittees trying to provide relief and have been stymied and stonewalled by these same Organizations while trying to provide relief. The biggest problem is that the Financial Infrastructure is the largest Lobby in Washington. "Essentially, these guys own the place and what they want, they get".

Before any Reform can take place, the entire method by which Washington does business must be reformed. Which means the destruction (creative destruction?) of the Lobbying System and K-Street before any meaningful Reform can take place.

"The Federal Reserve being under the control of the Financial Infrastructure"? We've got bigger problems, "The whole of the Government being under the control of the Financial Infrastructure" via their control of the Lobbying System and "elected" Representatives.

I think the main threat to the independence of the Fed comes not so much from its actions as from its statements. The bailout complications are recent, and hopefully temporary, but the long-term problem is the Fed's tendency to speak on issues that are beyond its purview. This is not necessarily the Fed's fault, though, because its members are never as insulated from political pressure as the federal courts are; they likely have a harder time saying "no" when politicians call for advice or support.

Yesterday I picked up a book called "Ben Bernanke's Fed" (Harvard Business 2008). The author, Ethan Harris, was the managing director of the now defunct Lehman Brothers. He notes charges about the Fed's recent entanglement in politics in Laurence Meyer's 2004 book, "A Term at the Fed."

Meyer was appointed to the Fed in 1996. He wrote that "Greenspan had a tendency to speak on issues that are beyond the authority of the Federal Reserve," and that "[b]y inserting himself into the political debate about fiscal policy, the Chairman might encourage others in government to reciprocate by meddling in monetary policy." See Harris at 76. Another quoted source, Alan Blinder, says that Congress thinks of central bank independence as a "two-way street," in that Congress will only leave the Fed alone so long as the Fed leaves Congress alone. This can obviously become difficult if everything ends up being politicized, though. For example, if monetary policy did become a political issue then it would be impossible for the Fed to remain "apolitical."

Finally, on p. 77, Harris notes that the White House and Congress increasingly sought out members of the Fed for economic advice. He thinks that Fed members should have declined to offer such advice, since this sort of mingling would compromise Fed independence in roughly the same way that advisory opinions etc can compromise judicial independence (even though they are allowed in many states). The Chairman and others obliged and visited with the President and Congressmen on policy issues that were unrelated to the Fed's work.

To be fair, the Fed may find it difficult to turn down Congressional or Executive requests precisely because it does not have the sort of independence that courts do.

Neil and Jack,

Well what do you know! I completely agree with both of your your last two respective posts. Must be the alignment of some astrological sign. I must say, however, that I am not hopeful about our future prospects.

Можно и подискутировать по этому поводу …

Uzair, One question, "Where does Harris come from"? Advising that the Federal Reserve & Treasury should ignore Congress & the President?

A conflict of interest? "Once again, "Who's in control here and who is authorized to set the path and direction of the Nation via the Constitution"? The Financial Infrstructure or Congress and the President. It ain't called "Political Economics" for nothing.

Hi Neilehat,

The idea behind the Fed's independence is the same as Judge Posner and Professor Becker note: that if the Federal Reserve becomes aligned with the political branches then it will likely change monetary policy for political purposes. It is important to think of what this would mean in normal times, when we are not in a recession.

If we oversimplify somewhat, we can see how this might work.

Suppose that the Executive branch and the Legislature are controlled by the same party (as they are right now). In normal times, the controlling party has a powerful incentive to create short-term bubbles, because bubbles look like wealth creation. The Federal Reserve can create such bubbles by lowering the interest rate or buying back treasury bonds. Indeed, one of the main theories about the housing bubble is precisely the Fed's decision to keep interest rates too low for too long. The party can then take credit for expanding home ownership or sparking a technological revolution.

Now suppose that the party is about to lose an election. As a parting gesture, it can have the Reserve raise interest rates. This will cause the bubble to burst and the incoming party will be left with the political blame.

We can see this dynamic at work even now. The current administration is already carrying some of the blame for job losses and painful economic restructuring that it simply cannot prevent. It would have been carrying even more of the blame if the previous administration had not been especially unpopular.

Now suppose that Congress or the President did control monetary policy. It is possible that voters might become so astute as to properly blame the politicians that were responsible for an ill-advised monetary policy, but I think this is unlikely. I suspect that voters are far likelier to give in to short-term thinking than an independent Fed would be. If voters know that they can get cheap houses and subprime mortgages, then they are not likely to worry about loose lending. In fact, some loosening of lending standards came precisely because of pro home ownership legislation such as the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. Rather than passing legislation, the voters could simply have the Fed lower interest rates and get the same effect. Banks that can borrow cheaply will lend cheaply (that is, to riskier borrowers) as well.

A populist monetary policy is likely to create extreme short-termism, and it is also likely to drive away investors because it is unpredictable.

Uzair, The Economy has always been about "butter or bombs" or if you prefer, "guns or butter". Main Street is quite aware of this phenomemon. The electorate's concern has always has been Jobs and what they bring. As for the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, it doesn't matter a bit as long as there are jobs and every Politician realizes this. If a Party in power manipulates the Federal Reserve in order to sling mud at the opposition and it costs jobs, the Electorate will smell it out and destroy that party. Look at Arlen Specter. The rats have already sensed it and are abandoning ship. Today's economic problem is getting a mad dog (the Financial Infrastructure) under control. Main Street knows this and has dealt with many other "mad dogs" lose in Town in the past.

As for "depoliticising" the Federal Reserve and Treasury is a pipe dream at best. Their very existence depends on the Political System.

Fed independence? Are you serious? The Fed exists to redistribute wealth from lenders to borrowers. Where have you been? Have you read Marx's "Communist Manifesto"? Read Plank Five.

One thing for sure. The smart thing for everyone to do now is to get rid of all debt. The idiot government wants the banks to lend so borrowers will borrow and spend. The liklihood of either of those is remote. Most people I know won't borrow and won't spend, particularly on housing when Obama is talking about reducing deduction for property taxes and mortgage interest. The poor folks who bought houses with subprime mortgages and walk away from them will not buy again and wealthy folks won't be able to afford those big houses

The smart strategy right now is to get rid of all debt and don't borrow anything. Don't lend either as your investment will certainly be repaid with cheaper dollars. The fed's admonition to lend implies borrowers. Isn't that how we got here in the first place? When the President goes on TV and admonishes the American people to wash their hands and buy American cars, one has to wonder how far down the road we have gone. Is there anyone out there who would buy a Chrysler product or for that matter a GM product. And right, Mr Goodwrench from the White House is going to show up to warranty your car and show you proper hand washing technique.

Hi, interesting post. I have been wondering about this issue,so thanks for sharing. I will certainly be subscribing to your site.

Hi, interesting post. I have been thinking about this issue,so thanks for sharing. I will certainly be subscribing to your blog.

The problem of The Federal Reserve System is not from the loss of independence from domestic political forces, but is its loss of efficiency due to the runaway trade deficit and the oversize dollar reserves of Asian exporters like China. Alan Greenspan might have erred by keeping short-term interest rate at 1% in 2003, but he had diligently raised it since the fall of 2004 to over 5% after Japan's great currency market manipulation to keep Dollar inflated had ended in the spring of 2004. As has been pointed out in our comments and articles, it was China and other reserve rich countries' insistence to continue to buy Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac papers to keep mortgage rate in U. S. low that had created the so called "interest rate conundrum". The actions of China and so on had prolonged the life and increased the size of the Bush bubble, and have made the pain from the burst of the bubble when U. S. trade deficit finally waned much worse.

Most of the problems arise from politics and monopolies...

Hi, nice post. I have been pondering this issue,so thanks for writing. I'll probably be coming back to your blog. Keep up the good work

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