Response on Global Warming-Becker
Several informed comments, including a few in emails directly to me. Some claim I overstate the warming problem, others that I understate it. This indicates that controversy remains about the causes and cures of any warming. I have a few additional points.
I agree there is room for doubt about whether industrial and other human activities are causing significant warming. But I have become more convinced than I was 15 years ago that it is a risk worth some effort to protect against, just as we insure against other risks that may never happen. I would oppose draconian cut backs in energy emissions, but not a modest and sensible program of the type set out in my commentary.
Enforcement is always a problem, and a quota or tax system of emission controls would need international enforcement. I believe that can be reasonably successful, although some rogue nations and companies would cheat.
I am a strong supporter of nuclear power, and believe that the opposition in the ‘70’s in the US and elsewhere was motivated more by emotion than by good analysis. So yes, let us pressure countries to reduce the excessive regulation of nuclear, so that the US (and other nations) can get far more than 20% of its power from this source.
I have used some multiple equilibrium, or “runaway”, models in my own work in economics, and have seen many such models. But at least in economics, they are far more common at the model-building stage than in any evidence yet analyzed. That may not be true in the climate area, but my admittedly cursory examination of some multiple-equilibrium climate literature does not lead me to place much weight on these models in the warming debate.
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12/24/2004
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