The War on Drugs--Posner's Response to Comments

The fact that the price of illegal drugs is not only low but falling, and indeed has fallen to quite low levels, is often treated as compelling evidence that the war on drugs has failed. That is true if the war metaphor is taken literally. But if the “war” is redescribed realistically as a campaign to reduce the consumption of illegal drugs, it could be thought at least a partial success even if the price of illegal drugs is extremely low. The reason lies in the distinction that economists draw between the full price of a good and its nominal price. The nominal price is the dollar amount charged by the seller; the full price includes any additional costs borne by the buyer, such as search costs (the costs involved in finding and negotiating with the seller—in other words, shopping costs) and any health risks associated with the consumption of the good. The war on drugs has had a significant effect on these additional costs. As a result of the drugs’ illegality, it takes some effort to find a seller, there is a risk of arrest and prosecution, and there is a risk of an accidental overdose resulting from lack of quality control in the manufacture of the product. (There is also a stigma to using illegal drugs, but this might remain if the drugs were legalized; heavy drinking, though legal, is stigmatized.) These costs would be eliminated if drugs were legal. It might seem that with the drugs worth more to consumers, price would rise, but this is unlikely; price would be constrained to cost by competition, and the additional benefits of the drugs—that is, the benefits generated by removing the costs resulting from criminalization—would be realized by consumers as consumer surplus (the difference between what a consumer would pay for a good and the price of the good). With the good more valuable to consumers but the nominal price no higher, consumption would increase. This point is potentially very important empirically, because the effect of criminalizing drugs on the full price of the drugs may be much greater than the effect on the nominal price. Suppose criminalization raises the nominal price of a dose of cocaine from $1 to $1.l0, a 10 percent increase; then using Becker’s elasticity estimate, legalizing cocaine would result in a 5 percent increase in demand. But now suppose that the war on drugs has increased the full price of cocaine from $1 a dose to $2.10 a dose (the 10¢ increase in nominal price plus a $1 increase in other costs of consumption); then legalizing cocaine could be expected to have a much more dramatic effect on consumption. However, as Becker points out, this effect could be offset by a tax (in the example, a $1.10 tax), though some incentive to smuggling would be created by so stiff a tax, as in the case of cigarettes. The important thing is that because of the difference between full and nominal price, the tax might have to be very stiff. Regarding performance-enhancing drugs, such as steroids, one comment points out that sports fans appreciate better performance, and notes that professional football is more popular than college football (alumni loyalties to one side). But there is a difference between skill and strength; if the principal effect of steroids is to increase strength rather than skill, it is not clear that entertainment value is enhanced. But suppose it is. Then what must be considered is the tradeoff between the increased income that steroid-consuming athletes can expect to obtain and the risks to their health. The tradeoff is complicated because some athletes will prefer the higher income and others will prefer to have better health and, being thus at a competitive disadvantage, will drop out of the sport. It is unclear whether there will be a net increase in performance, since some killed athletes will be lost to the sport, though those that remain will be better performers. Let me make clear that I have no ethical objection to performance-enhancing drugs. Suppose there’s a drug that adds 10 IQ points to everyone who takes it, and it has no adverse health consequences. Once some people start taking the drug, this will put pressure on others to follow suit. But I don’t see any difference between this effect and that resulting from an effort by a young business person to gain a competitive edge by getting an MBA, which will place pressure on his competitors to do likewise. That kind of competition improves economic welfare.

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