I agree with Becker's analysis as far as it goes, but I question whether the amount of terrorism is highly sensitive to economic development, to which the "demographic transition"--the well-documented tendency of birth rates (also death rates) to decline sharply when a nation reaches a threshold level of economic development--contributes. When birth and death rates decline, the average age of the population rises, which is a stabilizing force, the number of young men declines, and the economic opportunities of the young are greater because there are fewer young. So the number of potential foot soldiers for terrorism is diminished, as it is by anything that raises the opportunity costs of prospective terrorist recruits. But how important are those opportunity costs to the amount of terrorism?
It is helpful to think of terrorism as of other goods and services in demand and supply terms. There is a demand for terrorism, and a supply of terrorism, and the intersection of demand and supply gives the amount of terrorism. Terrorism is a political phenomenon, and the demand is driven mainly by political grievances, real or imagined. Often the grievances are related to foreign occupation. France in Algeria; the British in Palestine; now the Israelis in the West Bank; the United States in Iraq (and earlier in the Philippines)--though in the case of Islamic terrorism, the major factor seems to be the Western "presence" in the Middle East, rather than foreign occupation; even Israel's occupation of the West Bank seems a subsidiary factor. And the Baader-Meinhoff gang in West Germany, the Red Brigades in Italy, and Aun Shirikyo in Japan are examples of terrorist groups unrelated to foreign occupation. But it is the existence of grievance that is key, and often--probably typically--the grievance is political rather than economic.
If demand for terrorism is grievance-driven, then one can expect the supply of terrorists to come mainly from the intelligentsia, for the members of the intelligentsia are more likely than ordinary people to be moved by ideas, resentments, and political ambitions rather than by material concerns. They have the leisure and the education to think big thoughts, like overthrowing a government, which rarely brings material improvements.
Nor is it the case that the intelligentsia supplies merely the leaders, who then send their simple-minded followers to destruction. The leaders are at risk themselves; more important, the perpetrators of the actual terrorist attacks tend to be middle class (though the second intifada, mentioned by Becker, may be an exception). From a labor-market standpoint, there are two important tradeoffs in recruiting a supply of terrorists: quality-quantity, and capital-labor, and they are related. Because terrorists tend to be few in number if only because of the need for concealment, and to be operating in a hostile environment, the recruitment of a large number of poorly trained and motivated cannon fodder is unlikely to be optimal; they are likely to give the game away. Moreover, the most effective terrorism requires some technical sophistication (such as piloting an airplane), and this is a further reason for terrorist leaders to recruit high-quality personnel.
The relation of economic development in general or the demographic transition in particular to terrorism is likely to be extremely indirect, and is probably small. If one looks at a list of 195 countries ranked by birth rate, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_birth_rate, one discovers that of the 25 nations with the highest birth rates, all but one (Afghanistan) are in Africa, and Africa has not proved to be a major source of terrorists relative to its vast population. Pakistan has the world’s 57th highest birth rate--27.2 per thousand. This is high--replacement is 21; the U.S. birth rate 14; Germany’s 8.2--and Pakistan is often used as an illustration of a nation that has not made the demographic transition yet. Saudi Arabia, that cradle of Islamic terrorism, has a lower birth rate--24.2--though it is still high. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is a relatively wealthy country by international standards; its per capita income is similar to that of Poland and Chile. Algeria, with a birth rate (20.8) considerably below Saudia Arabia's, has a severe terrorism problem. Jordan has a substantially higher birth rate than Algeria (in fact it is only slightly lower than Pakistan's), but is not a hotbed of terrorism.
All this said, there is some negative correlation between birth rates and terrorism in Muslim countries, but it is weak, and probably swamped by other factors. The major factor in Islamic terrorism may have nothing directly to do with economic development or the factors that influence it; it may simply be the influence of extremist Islamic religious beliefs in particular Muslim nations and communities.
If you have to do it, you might as well do it right.
Posted by: Anonymous | 12/06/2009 at 11:49 PM
Beautiful site!
Posted by: Anonymous | 12/08/2009 at 06:20 PM
Beautiful site!
Posted by: Anonymous | 12/08/2009 at 06:21 PM
Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
Posted by: Anonymous | 12/08/2009 at 08:09 PM
Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
Posted by: Anonymous | 12/08/2009 at 08:09 PM
If you have to do it, you might as well do it right.
Posted by: Anonymous | 12/08/2009 at 09:55 PM
If you have to do it, you might as well do it right.
Posted by: Anonymous | 12/08/2009 at 09:56 PM
If you have to do it, you might as well do it right.
Posted by: Anonymous | 12/08/2009 at 11:41 PM
Perfect work!
Posted by: Anonymous | 12/09/2009 at 01:25 AM
May its blessings lead into a wonderful day for you and all whom you hold dear. What a wondeful blog. I like it very much . Thank you for your shaving.
Posted by: discount coach | 06/27/2010 at 10:30 PM
Carolina Herrera envió su colección primavera verano de 2012 la colección en la pasarela de Nueva York Semana de la Moda de hoy y estaba lleno de colores vivos, señora-como
siluetas, en el mejor de todo es que el suelo de madera maciza es muy rentable y hay algunas excelentes ofertas para se encuentra. Esta es una solución asequible de hecho.
Usted puede obtener productos de calidad a precios asequibles.replica handbags wholesale telas que fluyen, faldas bajas, carteras clásico y todo lo que nos gusta de Carolina
Herrera! Las texturas y los colores colección mixta con los neutrales en una discreta pero la moda actual. No hubo brillo, una mujer puede fácilmente caer en el amor con una
bolsa de Juicy, entonces se llega a saber que ninguno de bolsa será capaz de captar su atención, carteras de colores que añade una consideración diferente de los clásicos.que no
sea al por mayor bolsos de Juicy Couture. sutiles estampados geométricos, los puños en negrita y Selon ce que vous êtes désireux d’obtenir une chaussure de golf vraiment, vous
êtes particulier obtenir à un placement de localiser un petit quelque chose idéale au sein de leur collection de chaussures de golf prolongée des femmes. parmi les facteurs dé
terminants de l’est pour les golfeurs les plus jeunes filles lors de la détermination des chaussures Nike sur la façon d’être le prix. Nike Shox OZ Pas CherCependant, assurez
-vous retenir en particulier, des idées qui devraient vous êtes sur la façon d’utiliser ces chaussures se peu près tous les jours un, il peut bien être une idée étonnante à
commettre de nombreuses dollars voire plus. Marcher et à prix abordable au cours d’instruction tous les temps prolongée jour peut servir devient très éprouvante pour les pieds,
ce qui signifie que vous devrez trouver une position confortable.Nike shox NZ Pas Cher
Good market effect, thejeremy scott adidas increase horsepower operation. Each pair of shoes in the design of R & D at the beginning, will be faced with such dangerous: after
more than a year of the design and manufacture process, the market may have changed, fickle consumers no longer favored at the time of the popular elements and styles. Although
now manufacturing processes have been very efficient, but we still need to improve the flow of other links.” The adidas group honor CIO ( Chief Information Officer ) Peter
Barros said.Peter is trying to use the Internet to interact with the consumers, attempts from the terminal consumer sectors to establish reverse flow of information, to help
design a more accurate understanding of the market.In fact, the adidas design R & D personnel, except for the SNS interact with consumers, they are often in PTC company
established Engineer SNS community to exchange views. Peter told PTC will be launched at the end of the community of product research and development is also very interested,
adidas jeremy scott shop this 2 type development will make the collaborative development process to generate more ideas, more experience sharing. At the same time, also better
for the adidas BPR accelerated.
Posted by: chaussures shox | 03/07/2012 at 02:47 AM
thanks for your kindly posted.
Posted by: NBA Hats | 04/13/2012 at 01:11 AM
Nearly naked, both males and females wore ill-fitting shorts or old-fashioned knickerbockers, and three or four had donned threadbare jerseys.
Posted by: MLB Jerseys | 07/09/2012 at 02:43 AM