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09/14/2008

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comment6

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Where we can see that the markets are pricing odds of winning incorrectly is in the arbitrage bounds of the markets, and in these, you can tell there are many failings in these political markets. The most simple one to observe is that there can be at most one winner of the election, so owning all candidates should be worth 100% less the cost of holding that position. However, I have frequently seen the sum of all bids exceed 100% by as much as 10%. Taking a short position in any subset of candidates such that the sum is greater than 100% is arbitrage. (Note: I just pulled up the historical graph of IEM and observed the same phenomenon with their prices on Dems vs Reps rather than bids on people.)

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Many smart senior people (un-named because their companies are involved in this snake-oil sale) have confirmed this for me, saying "sentiment analysis software? don't bother"

red sole

Many smart senior people (un-named because their companies are involved in this snake-oil sale) have confirmed this for me, saying "sentiment analysis software? don't bother"

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