Is the Conservative Movement Losing Steam? Posner

I sense intellectual deterioration of the once-vital conservative movement in the United States. As I shall explain, this may be a testament to its success. Until the late 1960s (when I was in my late twenties), I was barely conscious of the existence of a conservative movement. It was obscure and marginal, symbolized by figures like Barry Goldwater (slaughtered by Lyndon Johnson in the 1964 presidential election), Ayn Rand, Russell Kirk, and William Buckley--figures who had no appeal for me. More powerful conservative thinkers, such as Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek, and other distinguished conservative economists, such as George Stigler, were on the scene, but were not well known outside the economics profession. The domestic disorder of the late 1960s, the excesses of Johnson's "Great Society," significant advances in the economics of antitrust and regulation, the "stagflation" of the 1970s, and the belief (which turned out to be mistaken) that the Soviet Union was winning the Cold War--all these developments stimulated the growth of a varied and vibrant conservative movement, which finally achieved electoral success with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1981. The movement included the free-market economics associated with the "Chicago School" (and therefore deregulation, privatization, monetarism, low taxes, and a rejection of Keynesian macroeconomics), "neoconservatism" in the sense of a strong military and a rejection of liberal internationalism, and cultural conservatism, involving respect for traditional values, resistance to feminism and affirmative action, and a tough line on crime. The end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the surge of prosperity worldwide that marked the global triumph of capitalism, the essentially conservative policies, especially in economics, of the Clinton administration, and finally the election and early years of the Bush Administration, marked the apogee of the conservative movement. But there were signs that it had not only already peaked, but was beginning to decline. Leading conservative intellectual figures grew old and died (Friedman, Hayek, Jeanne Kirkpatrick, Buckley, etc.) and others as they aged became silent or less active (such as Robert Bork, Irving Kristol, and Gertrude Himmelfarb), and their successors lacked equivalent public prominence, as conservatism grew strident and populist. By the end of the Clinton administration, I was content to celebrate the triumph of conservatism as I understood it, and had no desire for other than incremental changes in the economic and social structure of the United States. I saw no need for the estate tax to be abolished, marginal personal-income tax rates further reduced, the government shrunk, pragmatism in constitutional law jettisoned in favor of "originalism," the rights of gun owners enlarged, our military posture strengthened, the rise of homosexual rights resisted, or the role of religion in the public sphere expanded. All these became causes embraced by the new conservatism that crested with the reelection of Bush in 2004. My theme is the intellectual decline of conservatism, and it is notable that the policies of the new conservatism are powered largely by emotion and religion and have for the most part weak intellectual groundings. That the policies are weak in conception, have largely failed in execution, and are political flops is therefore unsurprising. The major blows to conservatism, culminating in the election and programs of Obama, have been fourfold: the failure of military force to achieve U.S. foreign policy objectives; the inanity of trying to substitute will for intellect, as in the denial of global warming, the use of religious criteria in the selection of public officials, the neglect of management and expertise in government; a continued preoccupation with abortion; and fiscal incontinence in the form of massive budget deficits, the Medicare drug plan, excessive foreign borrowing, and asset-price inflation. By the fall of 2008, the face of the Republican Party had become Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber. Conservative intellectuals had no party. And then came the financial crash last September and the ensuing depression. These unanticipated and shocking events have exposed significant analytical weaknesses in core beliefs of conservative economists concerning the business cycle and the macroeconomy generally. Friedmanite monetarism and the efficient-market theory of finance have taken some sharp hits, and there is renewed respect for the macroeconomic thought of John Maynard Kenyes, a conservatives' bête noire. There are signs and portents of liberal excess in the policies and plans of the new administration. There will thus be plenty of targets for informed conservative critique. At this writing, however, the conservative movement is at its lowest ebb since 1964. But with this cardinal difference: the movement has so far succeeded in shifting the center of American politics and social thought that it can rest, for at least a little while, on its laurels.

Comments

[Adindha]

I'm not sure I believe the eqeumpint line, since the weight limit they set is 200lbs. I'm fat, had all my three kids fat. My first was a c/s due to a failed induction, my next two were born at home. Sample size = 1. What concerns me, if this becomes more of a trend in medical practices, is what I saw happen in the VBAC world over the years. As it became harder to find an OB who would "allow" a woman to VBAC more and more of us stayed at home. At first, most of us opted to have skilled midwives with us (though my son decided not to wait for mine), and listened to our care providers when they risked someone out. Then over the years I watched as more and more woman totally opted out of the system, and UBAC (unassisted birth after c/s) became acceptable. Some had prenatal care. Some didn't. I've heard of UBAC with twins. Woman started ignoring "risk outs" and deciding they'd just stay home. The limits were pushed, much further than I personally was comfortable with, and I pretty much severed most of my ties with the community.The thing is.... when the option of a respectful VBAC in hospital became difficult, woman found another way, and that way became more and more, imo, dangerous. If it becomes difficult for a fat woman, no matter her health status, to find a normal OB, will she opt for the high risk OB or will she decide to opt out of the model entirely? Of those who opt out, some will be fine, and will have healthy pregnancies and easy births. Some will not.

[Farid]

I would be shocked if this were to hppaen in Canada. We don't have the crippling fear of legislation like in the States (not that it's non-existent...but I think you'd be more likely to be sued for Human Rights violations and discrimination).Also, aren't OB/GYNs there for high-risk patients? I'm low-risk and I went with a midwife. Some of my low-risk friends opted to go with General Practitioners/Family Doctors. But if you're high-risk, you go to an OB. I think if an OB doesn't want to deal with high-risk patients, then they maybe shouldn't be an OB. Obesity is just one form of risk --> they could also be dealing with pre-eclampsia, placenta previa, placental abruption, eclampsia, etc. It's not exactly a risk-free area of practice...

[Emanuele]

, it seems obesity is a dagner not just to the woman''s health, but possibly to her baby, as well.I was obese when I had my 2 kids. I happened to be near a regional hospital which did handle all complicated cases, and as it turned out I didn't need any special care anyway - but in retrospect, my obesity could have been bad for my babies. If I had been in a small isolated community with fewer resources and my doctor suggested I go to a specialized care hospital (just like someone with other risk factors), I would have gone without complaining about "discrimination"

[Tiago]

Hi Chris, I met you in Kettle Creek State Park, in northern PA. I wish you safe trealvs and I will follow your journey through until the end. You be careful, know you are in my prayers and know that you have the courage the size of an elephant~~God Bless and Happy Trails Joyce (the lady who floated the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon) Oh, and by the way, the outfitter is Western River Expeditions Safe Travels

[Nurozzaman]

Mr. Obama wanted the job, he can have it. Soon he'll crawl back to Jeremiah Wright for spaurtiil guidance because after his first transitional briefing at the White House, Barry will realize he has bitten off way, way, way more than he can chew.After our nation begins teetering on the brink, there will be a new Conservative movement in America as people realize that this sweeping new Liberal/Socialist movement was a bad thing.

[Jojo]

It sounds like dinenifg a footnote' class for DIV should solve your problem. I'd like to do that, but I couldn't come up with a general-purpose representation for footnotes in HTML. What's the best way to do it, anyway? Put them at the bottom of a section with internal links (what I do now)? JavaScript popups? Margin notes? Any one of these is more than I can accomplish with a simple DIV and CSS. Maybe some JavaScript rewriting could do it, but I'm not much of a JS hacker. So I took the complicated route and made my own FOOTNOTE tag that gets used twice once for the linked reference, once for the footnote itself when the page is displayed.

[Claudemilton]

Ok Max Martin kills it on the production and lrcyis again again and again. Seriously!!!!!! Love her voice. That man can seriously do no wrong, though..wow! He must come up with these hooks in his sleep!

[self hypnosis techniques]

We may say or others may say that it's trend, it's fashion. If we complain of the pop up trends, they will say we are being anachronistic. SO, I have they will realized that being so liberated is not healthy.