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neighborhood may remain basically say all white until a few black families move in. If more black households move in over time, their fraction may become large enough that many white residents begin to panic, and put their houses up for sale. After that the neighborhood quickly “tips” into becoming a mainly black neighborhood.


In the long run, the unsatisfied ambitions and grievances of the selectorate create an ever-present threat to the stability of the figurehead's administration.

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This rial did plunge in value shortly after the revolution appeared to be succeeding.

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The words you need by the people you admire, such as the: Character cannot be developed in ease and quiet. Only through experience of trial and suffering can the soul be strengthened, ambition inspired, and success achieved. College isn't the place to go for ideas. Death is no more than passing from one room into another. But there's a difference for me, you know. Because in that other room I shall be able to see. Everything has its wonders, even darkness and silence, and I learn, whatever state I may be in, therein to be content. Faith is the strength by which a shattered world shall emerge into the light.

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I was first impressed by the unexpected and speedy nature of the overthrow of authoritarian regimes in 1979 when a combination of religious and leftwing groups forced the Shah of Iran from power. Until very close to the end he looked invulnerable: he seemed to be in full control of a strong and well-equipped army,

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The Tunisian and Egyptian political eruptions were pretty much totally unexpected by the governments of the United States and of other countries, and by the vast majority of experts on Egypt and the Islamic world. To be sure, experts were aware that the government of say

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PSGT, I am guessing that most of the West (including you and myself) are uneducated concerning the Muslim Brotherhood. From what I read (not knowing if it is true), they are very religious but also very moderate, no better or worse than the religious right in the US. Not every Muslim governement will make an enemy of the US. Also, as IK and others pointed out, the recent uprising have virtually no backlash aginst the West in them (burning US flags, etc.). Also, unlike the recent case in Iran, no one is claiming that the West is behind these uprisings.

Also, concerning oil, the bigger problem is Peak Oil, not who controls it. If Middle East countries shut off oil to everyone, then they lose money. If they shut it off to just the West, then others will fill that spot. They can direct where THEIR oil goes, not where ALL oil goes – and money talks.

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Maybe the knowledge that the debt ceiling could be a dramatic face-off can help the government try to avoid having to raise the debt limit in the future.

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This post is worth reading as it is providing guidance on the timing of major political changes.
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