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05/08/2011

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Jim

Good luck with all of that, Professor.

Root Hoi

Were you aware that the world has consumed more grain than it's produced 11 out of the last 13 years?

Uiop

Intensive agriculture poses significant environmental costs, that above some threshold pose significant long-term costs. For example, a great deal of the agricultural land of California's central valley are experiencing rising salt contents, which make the land far less productive. Similarly, intensive pig and chicken farming waste can have a negative impact on our fisheries. Agricultural production is not geared to highest production per acre/hectare, but to the lowest cost/unit product per acre. This fact can be readily attested to by a visual comparison of an well-tended garden and a typical crop field laid out in neatly spaced rows.

denis

em...., very insteresting article. thanks for you hard work.

Jack

It's likely to require substantial C H A N G E if it works at all.

Here's a bit on the non-health of our Ogallala Acquifer:

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:coWJnnxGhn8J:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer+ogallala+aquifer+depletion+rate&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com

...... and with systems highly stressed the breakdowns are likely to be spotty and perhaps sudden.

In a QA session after a panel exploring the myriad nuances of the Pakistan, Afghanistan, bin Laden affair, one questioner said I've three, one word questions not covered: Food. Water. and Opium.

Aaah, yes! If a democratic or other system does not provide even the basics as it strives to build a wealthier capitalist or mixed economy, there's not likely to be a peace in which to build it.

Jack

Uiop...... and we do have the potential to switch from growing, costly to maintain and useless, turf to truck gardens! Where's qwerty?

Uiop

qwerty is in my left hand, Jack. But I'm not sure I understand your comment. Local farming works well enough, but international distribution of some crop foods is necessary to counteract local shortages, especially grain crops. Certain modes of farming are labor intensive. We don't have peasants any more for a reason.

Jack

Uiop -- Clarification: I was commenting on the immense wasted potential of suburban lawns -- a COSTLY crop that is over-fertilized, screws up the streams, and is hauled off to a land-fill at yet more cost.

I was reflecting on nations like Korea where a sidewalk sized patch of land outside a factory fence will be planted in green onions or some such. During WWII we had Victory gardens when every little bit helped.

But yes...... even home grown carrots, though tasty, are typically not competitive with "storebought".

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NEH

Ample resources for ten billion people by year 2100? We're beginning to see and have problems supplying clean water for the current seven billion that now inhabit the planet. In some circles, there is talk of beginning to pump down the Great Lakes in the U.S. and I won't even mention the draw down of the Aral Sea, or that lake in California that has become nothing less than a salt pan. As for the World's Aquifiers, the well strings are now having to be pulled and the wells drilled deeper and deeper every year.

One solution, "Ocean based Desalination Plants". But then, due to tax cuts and the like, we can't even afford to maintain and upgrade the infrastructure we already have. Let alone spend hundreds of billions needed to establish a new infrastructure to supply clean water. One of the basic essentials of life on the Planet...

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we can't even afford to maintain and upgrade the infrastructure we already have. Let alone spend hundreds of billions needed to establish a new infrastructure to supply clean water. One of the basic essentials of life on the Planet...

Ken Leonard

Have you given any thought to the problems raised by Lester Brown in his well researched books and this month's article in "Foreign Affairs" about how virtually all arable land is now being utilized to its' full capacity based upon the availability of water. Also, he points out that both the Colorado and Nile rivers are now being fully utilized by their adjoining states or countries and most years their waters have not reached the oceans. I would like to hear your response to the notion that water and food set the limits on population growth.

Rosetta Stone

Forecasts of the world’s population only a few years in the future are generally quite accurate because the number of births and deaths during the next few years are largely determined by the existing distribution of the number of people at different ages. At the same time, forecasts of the population 50 or more years into the future are notoriously inaccurate because of difficulties in predicting changes over a long time period in birth rates, and to a much lesser extent

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Forecasts of the world’s population only a few years in the future are generally quite accurate because the number of births and deaths during the next few years are largely determined by the existing distribution of the number of people at different ages.

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One solution, "Ocean reliant Desalination Plants". But then, just like a final result of taxes cuts too since the like, we are able to not even pay for to retain and upgrade the infrastructure we undoubtedly have. permit by yourself invest a huge choice of billions required to arranged up a maker new infrastructure to offer completely clean water. one while using simple essentials of existence within the Planet...

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T-Dog

This guy is not an earth or environmental scientist. Why does he think he knows a darn thing about this topic? I think he should ask someone who is actually an expert on matters of the effect of pop. growth on the environment. That person would say, less population is better for the world, all else equal.

Listen to an expert, not to a law professor.

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Also, he points out that both the Colorado and Nile rivers are now being fully utilized by their adjoining states or countries and most years their waters have not reached the oceans. I would like to hear your response to the notion that water and food set the limits on population growth.

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Good stuff. It is interesting to read comments. Thanks for such an informative article, it's been very useful.

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