The Decline in Immigration from Mexico: What It Means for the United States—Posner

In 2008 there were believed to be 7.03 million unauthorized Mexican immigrants in the United States, and by 2010 that number had fallen to 6.64 million, a drop of 390,000—6.64 percent. (I am dubious that these statistics are accurate, but doubtless there has been a significant decline in illegal Mexican immigration.) There are three possible reasons for the decline: reduction in employment opportunities in the United States, as a consequence of the severe economic downturn, involving heavy unemployment, that began with the financial crisis of September 2008; increased efforts at border control and apprehension of illegal immigrants to prevent unauthorized immigration, especially from Mexico (which is believed to be the source of nearly 60 percent of all illegal immigration to the United States); and improved employment opportunities in Mexico. The first two factors are probably the most important—especially the first. Many unauthorized Mexican immigrants were employed in the construction industry, and the economic downturn caused a tremendous surge of unemployment in that industry—a layoff of something like 600,000 construction workers, in all. But the second factor has a played a role. There has been toughened border enforcement, which has pushed up smugglers’ fees, which are paid for by the unauthorized immigrants; and so an increase in those fees discourages immigration. 

I attach less weight to the third factor—Mexico’s improved economic situation—because the improvement of the Mexican economy has been a gradual process, beginning in the 1990s. Mexico’s per capita GDP is still a third lower than that of the United States. Approximately 18 percent of Mexicans live in extreme povery, and another 47 percent in less extreme poverty, so that a total of 65 percent of the Mexican population is poor. And Mexico has a total population of 113 million. So there is an enormous pool of potential immigrants to the United States, where wages are much higher than in Mexico. 

The growing hostility to Mexican immigrants (and to immigrants in general) is understandable, though ill informed. It mainly results from the belief that immigrants “take away” jobs from Americans; a more precise formulation would be that an increase in the supply of labor, if more than proportionte to an increase in demand, will push down wages; and American workers who refuse to accept a reduction in their wages will lose their jobs to immigrants. In addition, immigrants place pressure on U.S. public services, such as public schools and emergency rooms, though unlawful immigrants are not entitled to Medicare or social security, or to many other public benefits. 

Unemployment in the United States is very high, and rising, but it is doubtful that restricting immigration would have a positive effect. Immigrant workers spend much of their income in the United States (some of it, however, they remit to relatives in their country of origin), and so increase demand for goods and services, and indirectly employment; and by reducing wage levels they reduce the cost of goods and services, a reduction that also stimulates consumption and hence production and employment, although the net effect on the economy must be small—there are not that many illegal Mexican immigrants. Weakness in consumption is a major factor in the nation’s current economic weakness, however, and there is no good reason to weaken it further by expelling or preventing entry of worker-consumers. And efforts to curtail illegal immigration are costly, without doing much for employment. Probably, therefore, restricting immigration is not a sensible policy from the standpoint of stimulating the U.S. economy. A better policy would be to increase the lawful Mexican immigration quota, since lawful immigrants are likely to be more productive workers with better educational backgrounds and to place less strain on U.S. public services.

Comments

[nike shox shoes]

they will run back South.

As for a policy, I favor using modern day bounty hunters. Why should an illegal immigrant have greater rights than someone who has skipped bond? And seeing Dawg with a new tv reality show

[günstige ugg]

Die Regierung Buch tatsächlich ausgeführt wird außerhalb von Lösungen zu versuchen, eine neue Wölben Finanzsystems zu verbessern und unteren mit abgefeuert worden. So Politiker neigen dazu, erwartete bis 60 Jahren wieder zu erreichen in den playbook daher ihre nächste Schicht sein., [url=http://www.uggkaufen.net/]Ugg Online[/url] , Viele Ökonomen erwarten, dass angesichts einer dachte Donnerstag Anspruch für Sie das Kapital innerhalb seiner $ 1 shift zu. SIX Billionen Sammlung über kurzfristige Wertpapiere neben den direkt in längerfristige Beteiligungen. , [url=http://www.uggkaufen.net/kids-stiefel-wholesale-2.html]Kinder stiefel[/url] , kann Ihre Strategie niedrigeren Treasury versichern zusätzliche. Schließlich wäre es Gebühren über Wohn zusammen mit anderen Käufer als auch kleinen Unternehmen Kredite zu minimieren, als auch.

[jordan cool grey]

Thanks for sharing. This website is to I too have to help. Very good.

[red bottom shoes]

I find life an exciting business,The point is succinctness of expression.

[supra vaider]

I just sent this post to a bunch of my friends as I agree with most of what you’re saying here and the way you’ve presented it is awesome.

[nike shox cheap]

the younger brother of red to two elder sister bought a red pants. Because our brothers sister three actually remember: this year is the second sister benmingnian.

[Marco Presichi]

Well to me a a Mexican (that lives in Mexico) I have to say that most people from the U.S. have a very hard time understanding the mechanics of Mexico and have a dogmatic view about Mexico, I will not say that Mexico is a paradise but surely is NOT the hell hole that some believe it is , I live in Tijuana and for most of you would think I deal with drug battles on an everyday basis, I lived here most of my life and I never even seen a shoot out or a gun battle I know that there's people out there in my city that had seen this but I think my situation is more common then the opposite . I guess is better that you guys have this view about us, so its not attractive for you to move down south we already have over 1 million Americans and around 500,000 Canadians living in Mexico mostly retired, I wonder what will happened when by 2030 wen Mexico turns from the 12th largest economy of today to the 5th largest economy in the world and that our middle class grown from been the 60% of the population of today to 85% middle class economy of tomorrow and that by that year we will have 100% coverage of universal free Medical care, I wonder if we will have a mass immigration of old people coming from the U.S. trying to live on there Social Security check? I wonder if that 1 million could turn in to 6 million which ironically is around the number of illegal aliens from my country that live and work in yours. All I can say is GOD BLESS BOTH OF OUR COUNTRY'S!! By then our differences will be dwarf by mutual world problems, like the Asian block threat or terrorism, I can tell you one thing I prefer to see the U.S. leading the world then the Chinese... Thank you.

[Haloti Ngata Jersey]

Your post is an excellent example,I keep on reading this attractive blog.

[Moncler Manteaux]

Hey ! am I glad to vist your blog ! from this I can get some information and facts that I didn’t know prior to. You made my day. Thank you rather much!

[wedding520]

例えば、プロ結婚式ドレス
のテーラーから裾は非常に基本的な裾のための$ 55の複数の層のための$ 200までの範囲かもしれないが、ウエディングドレス縫製の部屋の周りに自分の道を知っている人にとっては困難な雑用ではないかもしれません。それはすべてのガウンの構造に依存する。裾は非常に単純であるが、あなたのカラードレス 格安
は、裾でのレースがある場合、それはより広範な作業を必要とするかもしれないことに注意することができます。<

[wedding520]

例えば、プロ結婚式ドレス
のテーラーから裾は非常に基本的な裾のための$ 55の複数の層のための$ 200までの範囲かもしれないが、ウエディングドレス縫製の部屋の周りに自分の道を知っている人にとっては困難な雑用ではないかもしれません。それはすべてのガウンの構造に依存する。裾は非常に単純であるが、あなたのカラードレス 格安
は、裾でのレースがある場合、それはより広範な作業を必要とするかもしれないことに注意することができます。<

[red bottom heel]

Nice, and thanks for sharing this info with us.Good Luck!

[Cheap Scarf Online]

Global demographics instruct that manufacturing job growth in nations with emerging economies will continue to outpace manufacturing job growth in America.

[Cheap Moncler Sale]

Having higher numbers of occupants per existing structure doesn't bode well for selling off the homes having fallen or about to fall into the laps of bankers.All of the sci-fi stories pointed to a shorter work week, more leisure time and industries developing around increased leisure time coupled with the income to enjoy it. We have nothing like that in place or even in mind. Instead those desperate for any kind of job are to work longer hours for less pay and be appreciative for their opportunity.

[Air Force One]

We have nothing like that in place or even in mind. Instead those desperate for any kind of job are to work longer hours for less pay and be appreciative for their opportunity.

[Christian Louboutin UK]

The bitter truth is that the employment prospects for a recent college grad are far more grim, especially full-time employment in their field of study.

[Air Max 2011]

The Occupy Movement and everyone else worried about earnings inequality should be emphasizing the need to find ways to encourage more high school dropouts and high school graduates to get the required background and study habits so that they can, and want to, continue on for a college education.

[Monster Beats Dre]

There‘s always going to be people that hurt you so what you have to do is keep on trusting and just be more careful about who you trust next time around.

[Monster Beats Studio]

As compared to the post-World War II era, Americans with high school diplomas today are much less likely to find manufacturing jobs, because there are 2-3 billion people in emerging economies with similar skills who are willing to work more cheaply in order to have a shot at attaining a middle class standard of living.

[Paul Smith]

Merci beaucoup pour votre article.

[Paul Smith]

Merci beaucoup pour votre article.

[2012 Moncler Vendita]

I love your blog very much, more more info, I will concern it again!

[Asics Shoes]

A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.

[Cheetrife]

wBs5rEm http://www.jordanheels-nike.com nike heels sAy2fVq jordan high heels jNu4fRp jordan heels tHn1dBy

[ReehexyCeak]

dEe7kTu http://www.stivali-ugg-shop.com ugg milano eKu5zKf ugg milano uRv7fRbstivali ugg