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07/10/2011

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Jack

Pradeep: I see you've posted yet another of your wild-eyed rants.

Scanning over the thing, it appears the worst of it is that of substituting media sound bites for perspective or magnitudes.

For example while lamenting??? US imports, do you have in mind that we import only $2 trillion/ year? About 14% of our GDP with oil being number one by far. Though $2 billion is a small fraction of the US GDP it IS important in the world as it tallies up to our being the largest importing nation. One would think those now emerging in India, China etc would be ecstatic that we ARE such a nation of consumers.

As for oil, today, I think Americans have heard the warning bell on being so over-dependent on oil imports with the extreme gouging finally spurring us to action........ as the Saudi's have long feared we'd do if gouged too deeply.

In addition to the rapid ramping up of wind, solar and CONSERVING more of what we've long wasted, it looks as though we'll soon be substituting a LOT more of our plentiful NG as well as efficiently turning our nearly unlimited supplies of coal into jet fuel and other high priced liquid fuels. As you may know the new Chevy Volt can serve most of our transportation needs while running entirely on electricity created by OUR coal, OUR NG, and increasingly by OUR plentiful wind resources. Solar costs too are coming down nicely and appear to be being built competitively here as well.

Well, in closing, it's my hopes that the US will soon emerge from the destruction wrought during the Bush Admin, that one hopes is the LAST of the "supply side" DEBT amassing experiments of over-rewarding the wealthiest while leaving the middle class with far too few dollars to "go shopping" be it for the 85% spent on our own goods and services or those who'd like to export a lot more to us.

Here's a list of imports and percentages:

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:bdkzZewSDP4J:www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_us_imports.html+US+imports&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com

As, I'm sure you can quickly see, after the $341 billion for crude oil, its only imported cars that amount to triple digit billions, with the rest being fairly small.

BTW I am hoping Tata does well with the Jaguar marque as it is a fine machine of excellent quality that I've enjoyed over many miles though I do not own one. But! I do sense some clouds in the Jaguar's otherwise sunny skies.

Problem is the rear wheel drive Jag - skitterish! on ice and snow! "just another gashog" and in a world of oil price gouging I'm definitely sensing that those entrepreneurial Americans you seem to envy, are increasingly going to opt for the similar luxury of a Chevy Volt which sells for a bit less but sports an effective MPG rating of 92 on electric and over 50 on "typical mixed driving".

Well, best of hopes, for yourself and India which I hope will continue to make high percentage gains. Back when Japan, Inc was the envied "econ model" and fairly rich, they provided us with a LOT of tourists and tourism dollars, and as you know well, there are a LOT more Indians --- and Chinese. We look forward to them visiting Yellowstone, the Grand Canyon, Disney World and many others of our popular tourist destinations. "Exporting" good experiences and memories is a fine business which we hope will continue to grow.

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Pradeep Despandee

Jack,

As the European Welfare states, under perpetual low growth, fade into decline (the weaker ones at the margin are already failing) Americans who have enjoyed a standard of living 6 times the world average are having this bright idea:

“Lets abandon the American ideals of individualism and self reliance and let’s copy Europe”.

If you were doing business in Asia, and thus had a perspective for what 3 billion people growing at 6-10% means, you would immediately realize what a delusional suicide path Americans have chosen. I mean, of all things, copy Europe?! So Americans are doomed. In my view, they are already past the point of no return. From now on, expect an ever more economically distressed electorate to make ever more self-destructive decisions at the polls. The path to Francification is irreversible.

When Japan emerged, it made some waves, enough to have some Americans worried and resentful. That was the wave of 125 million Japanese. Now the Tsunami of the 3 Billion BRIC is coming. How are Americans going to maintain a standard of living 6 times the world average? By rejecting the unusual and very successful American values and copying Europe, the sick man of the world? By decreasing the incentives to innovate and produce? Sorry gotta laugh! I mean, really laugh!

By the time Indians, Chinese, Brazilians reach even just half the standard of living of the Japanese, they will be an economic force 25 times Japan and 8 times the US.

America will have melted away into the world average dominated by much more populous countries well before we see the next 0.2C in global warming that the Chevy Volt seeks to combat and which Americans, oblivious to their decline, believe they have the luxury to waste human energy addressing (another great joke of delusion).

Thanks a lot, the little oil your expensive Chevy Volts leave behind in a delusional attempt to address a non problem of some lucky people who get to live in the marvelous world of 2100, will be promptly picked up and burned by 3 billion energy thirsty people who have no time for hippie dreams.

Meanwhile Americans do continue trying to keep the world oil in the ground! I’m sure the time will come when oil producing countries will say: “Well, let’s stop extracting oil. There’s no longer anyone who wants to buy and burn it! The whole socioeconomic universe of the Average American is delusional!

I wish you luck too.

To France! …And beyond!

Jack

Pradeep:

I can only award you a C minus for your most recent, repetitive post. Let's take a look:

“Lets abandon the American ideals of individualism and self reliance and let’s copy Europe”.

.............. Unsupported speculation. Same problem with your 2nd paragraph -- hrsht.

On "Japanese" GOOD that you constrained your typically global "truths" with "some". But! we ARE a large and diverse nation with some missing the actual truth.

Wiser folk were GLAD to see Japan rebuild their nation and become a large trading partner. Those, peering under the hood, were pleased in two ways for the Japanese auto industry. ONE, was that of the US with but three oligops was slow to bring out a newer mix of cars suitable for changing times. The other, for the thoughtful? was that of being ecstatic that they woke up our slumbering industry which is again building competitive cars.

"France?" I'm sure I have pointed out to you and others here in the past that on an hour worked basis the French are more productive than are the US......... and in case you've not noticed? WE are QUITE productive.

As for "billions coming?" Silly. we wish them well.

Probably an F for your paragraph of multiplying large numbers times other large numbers to get a predictably large number. Seemingly lacking in history, perhaps note that when the US emerged nearly alone after WWII and had no trading partners that we, despite having a post war DEBT of 1.27 times GDP dipped deeper into our til to stand up Europe with the Marshal Plan and extended to Japan and Korea a similar hand up.

You appear to be holding a silly and long outmoded concept of world economics and cooperation. Except from the fearmongers every nation has, WE are pleased to see progress in the nations you mention, and should they become wealthier than the US? Great!

Oh! Nearly left out!! The rapid growth of the nations under discussion IS closely connected to the huge consumer market provided by the US....... and the EU. What you might puzzle over for a while is WHAT will happen to such growth when the (newly impoverished???) US, France, the entire EU can no longer absorb their excess capacity.

Please rework the tangle of words ending in "great delusion" OK?

As for "oil non problem?" Please begin studying the issue soon.

The last "line? on "keeping oil in the ground???" I hate to inquire but it being a week-end, is there some chance you've been ........... tippling a bit? Try to think: Were a technology available next week that reduced world oil dependence by 50% or more...... would you see that as a negative for the world????????????

And lastly.......... IF you see the $40k Volt as "being expensive" I'd urge you to do more homework! Consider...... you're Tata Jag is more costly and over 200,000 miles will guzzle 14,000 gallons of costly gasoline........ at even $3 its fuel will cost $42,000 or........ just enough to purchase a Volt and have $2,000 left.......not quite enough to fuel it for 200,000 miles...... but close!

Could you do some thinking and bring some better work in the coming weeks? Thnx!

Cheers! ............ and hopes?

Pradeep Despandee


The central and overriding force of our times is the trajectory of American prosperity in a US that is copying Europe against the backdrop of an emerging world of 3 billion growing at 6-10%. It is repetitive because it is the overriding central theme under which the irrelevant distractions of daily American public life and politics are played against.

The divergence of growth trajectories will dwarf all other issues when it comes to American prosperity relative to the rest of the world. Yours and similar comments provide evidence to the international business world as to the causes of this American decline and its irreversibility. It is useful for me and others with worldwide business activities to take the prevailing and deteriorating American politico-economic philosophy into account when making long term business plans. The fact that Americans are poised to reject the values that have set them apart from the rest of the world is a vital piece of information when looking into the future.

No, the emerging world is not on a trajectory to overtake the US in per capita prosperity. Actually, by the time emerging economies reach ½ the prosperity level of Americans, it is more likely than not that useful idiots will apply enough pressure to stall the Emerging World’s growth to today’s Western levels, just like useful idiots have done in the West – seems part of the natural cycle, the very prosperity creates useful idiots who then proceed to stifle it (they work like antibiotics in bacteria colony).

However, since, like most people you judge prosperity in relative terms (otherwise why would the American middle class, still in the top 10% of wealth worldwide, find attractive, of lately, class warfare on the top 1%? ), a world where 3 billion people have grown to even ½ the prosperity level of Americans and have thus relegated the US to 5% of world GDP (from the current level of 25%) will feel very-very different than it does today. Being an American will no longer be the exceptional thing it is today. What you had and what you lost.

Unless, of course, you start growing at 5% per year, which would involve retreating from the European style burdens you have started subjecting your more productive people. That will simply not happen, you seem to have gone past the point of no return with your last presidential election, so Americans, welcome to averagedom. Worldwide averagedom that is. You did not like being part of the American middle class and thought you would take the European class-warfare shortcut to prosperity? Well, the end result will be that you will melt away into the worldwide average, as Europe is already doing with growth rates of 1-2% per year in a world that is growing at 4-5% on average. Watch the decline unfold.

Even more suicidally, your current administration, by marrying the competence of the average American with French incentives to produce is permanently crippling American exceptionalism and will be challenged to keep America even as vanishingly competitive as submerging Europe is.

I, and many people all around me are scaling back their investments in America. We have started seeing America in the same light as Europe. Too regulated, with an electorate bamboozled into believing that somehow the lower incentives to produce of a welfare state will allow them to maintain prosperity. Our focus is turning more and more Eastward. I expect your voters to vote for even more of the same. The vicious cycle you have entered leaves little room to be optimistic.

NEH

Pradeep, "Useful Idiots"? Sounds as if your coming from the perspective from the Indian Aristocracy that his lived and prospered on the backs and from the mouths of other Indians for millenia. We got rid our social order that benefitted from slavery years ago. When are you going to come into at least the 19th Century? Ah... the joys of giving the ignorant (especially an Aristocracy that is trying desperately to hold on to its priveleges)a soap box and megaphone? We've already passed through that stage and into the 21st Century where the working class has rights and the right to a liveable wage and benefits instead of the slums and degradation known in India and the rest of the East today.

The time will come when the population rises to the call, "Workers unite, you have nothing to lose, but your chains"! The question will become, do you follow down the road of Communism or it gives rise to Unionism and a livable wage...

You have a long road to travel ahead of you.

Jack

Pradeep??? Whew! Am I conversing with some sort of bot? You wrote the same post over again despite my light-hearted chiding. Were you unable to find answers to any of my questions? Do you think .........sometimes?

Anyway........ as NEH reminds "the goal" of civilized man is not that of being tied to the mill wheel 90 hours a week in order to meet the latest "5 year plan" or some "goal" of a cancerous, nationless, faceless corpie.


No........ the ideal for the civilized IS that of balancing productive endeavors and "serving someone" with a healthy balance of family and recreational time.

As for our current Admin, at the level you appear to be, I doubt you're in position to understand much about America and/or the wisdom of what will be one of the best Presidents we've had in the last 100 years.

Interestingly........ while flopping around trying to hit on "US failures" you hit not ONE of them. I thought from our list of imports you MIGHT catch on a bit, as we HAVE been negligent on Oil Policy with a string of oil-soaked Presidents having slipped in since President Carter presciently saw our energy problem back in the mid-seventies. But! it appears the wake up call has been heard and embodied, at least, in our youthful, forward looking President if not in the aging dinosaurs of Congress, by definition, soon to be replaced.

Take a look for yourself:


http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:bdkzZewSDP4J:www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_us_imports.html+US+imports&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com

Knock out a goodly portion of the $400 billion oil price gouging bill, up exports a very small percentage, and bingo! our trade deficit either disappears or shrivels to a token problem.

Oh......... and take a look at India's exports to the US too.

India’s exports to America amounted to
$25.7 billion or 1.2% of overall US imports.

1. Diamonds … $3.9 billion
2. Cotton apparel … $3.7 billion
3. Medicinal preparations … $2 billion
4. Jewelry … $1.5 billion
5. Oilfield equipment … $890.2 million
6. Semi-finished iron, steel … $695 million
7. Industrial organic chemicals … $671.2 million
8. Tobacco, waxes and oils … $599.9 million
9. Other industrial machinery … $597.5 million
10. Floor coverings … $568.3 million

$26 billion? Less than we waste in the M/E in a few months, but more importantly not anything the US really needs...... which is to say "great as long as PRICE stays low"........ though I do think Indian carpets will remain popular. Medical? I think clamping down on those producing the ingredients for making Meth Amphetamines will put a LARGE dent in the $2 billion.

Well, Cheers! and in any response could you answer any of the questions or charges levied here? just so we'll know you aren't a bot or transponder for some whackright radio schemer?

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