The Decline in Illegal Immigration From Mexico-Becker

 

Net illegal immigration from Mexico to the United States has been essentially zero and perhaps even negative, during the past few years. Is this entirely due to depressed labor markets in the US and tougher border policing, or have longer run forces also been at work? The answer is that fundamental changes in Mexico have contributed to the immigration slowdown, and these changes will continue into the future. As a result, the highly controversial American political issue of what to do about illegal immigration should become much less important in the future.

Immigration theory divides the factors determining immigration into “push” and “pull” forces. Push forces refer to conditions in the countries where immigrants come from, such as low incomes, high levels of unemployment, restricted opportunities for children, and religious, racial, and other forms of discrimination that make living there unattractive. Pull forces refer to opportunities in receiving countries, such as good earnings, jobs, and opportunities for children. Individuals migrate when the combination of push and pull forces make the expected gains from moving large enough to overcome the substantial difficulties of moving, including separation from parents, siblings, and even spouses for prolonged periods.

In all major immigration episodes, younger adults do most of the moving since they are less tied down by family responsibilities, and are more willing to take on the various risks involved in moving to another country. For many years, the net gain from moving to the US has been very high to young Mexicans with modest skills and education. The main reason has been much lower incomes in Mexico, even for persons with jobs, and jobs were more available in America since Mexico has had highly restricted labor markets. These forces encouraged millions of younger Mexicans to endure the uncertainties and costs of crossing the border illegally.

The Great Recession put a temporary end to easy availability of jobs in the United States since at the height of the recession the unemployment rate of low-skilled workers ballooned to about 16 percent. The difficulties of finding good jobs even encouraged some illegal immigrants to return to Mexico. That, along with tighter border patrols, greatly reduced the number of illegal border crossings.

Once the American economy resumes its long-term growth path with full employment (it has not been on this path for the past 4 years), the economic pull from the US should return to where it had been before the economic crisis. However, the push from Mexico has been decreasing and should continue its downward path for the foreseeable future. One important cause is the sharp decline in Mexican birth rates during the past couple of decades. Not long ago Mexico was a country with high birth rates that produced many young adults who had trouble finding jobs. Now, the Mexican total fertility rate (TFR)- the number of children born to a typical woman over her lifetime- has plummeted to about 2.25. This rate is only a little above the population replacement rate of 2.1. Unlike in the past, the number of young people in Mexico will no longer be growing rapidly over time, so that the numbers looking for work in the Mexican labor market will be on the decline.

The push from Mexico has also diminished because its economy has been growing at a good clip during the past 9 years. Excluding the large drop in 2009, the growth rate in real GDP has been over 4% per year. Mexico’s growth rate after 2009 considerably exceeds the American rate of under 2%, which is remarkable since about 80% of all Mexican exports go to the depressed American economy. One consequence is that the gap between earnings in Mexico and the United States is narrowing. This clearly reduces the demand to immigrate to America, especially under the difficult circumstances illegal immigrants face.

The US must find a way to offer a path to citizenship for the millions of illegal immigrants in the country. I have suggested elsewhere (”The Challenge of Immigration: A Radical Solution”, IEA, 2011) that the best approach is to sell the right to immigrate. Since illegal, as well as legal, immigrants could buy this right, such an approach would help solve the problem of illegal immigration.

But even if no new policies are adopted to reduce the flow of illegal immigrants, the number of new immigrants from Mexico will not return to pre-recession levels because economic opportunities are rising in Mexico, and there will be fewer young Mexicans who need to find jobs.

 

 

Comments

[Neilehat]

"The numbers of Illegal Immigration by Mexicans are down". How do we know that for sure? Being subject to Arrest and Deportation means that those who are entering the Country illegally are operating under the Radar and as such never truly show up in the statistical data lists. Hence, the statistics are faulty and of no real value. Although, I do agree that Market/Economic/Political forces are the main motivating force for Immigration. I know this for a fact since my forebears left the British Isles in the 1690's and 1720's and Germany in the late 1840's (to escape from the Prussian Secret Police). Economic and Political factors are the prime motivators for Immigration. But, a Nation must still control immigration of foreign nationals across it's Borders. Otherwise, it cannot be considered a Sovereign Nation.

[Wky James]

I agree that the decline of the illegal immigration from Mexico is not just base on the policies or the situations happening inside the U.S. Instead, as the author stated, the “push” factor in the Mexico.
First of all, the Mexico economy had been growing gradually this few years. According to the statistics mentioned in the article, the growth rate for the Mexico GDP had been over 4% per year. This growth even surpasses the U.S. economy which improved the general standard of living for the people living in Mexico. Meanwhile, through the improvement, people will not choose to take the risk of going to the U.S illegally as their living environment has been better off a lot comparing to the past.
Secondly, in my opinion, the Mexico general education level had been raised to a higher level. By doing so, people can be enjoying a better education level which raised their knowledge and this also means that they can get a better payment job which also reduces the incentives of illegal immigration.
Finally, I think that the way of selling the right to immigrate is quite achievable and reasonable to do it. This is because the Federal government can gain from earning the fees for competing for the right to immigrate. Meanwhile, this can help screening out some illegal immigrants as they already know that they cannot afford it. In addition, some people may not take the risk of facing barriers in the States or being discriminated, they will rather stay at their home place to ensure themselves to be living in a familiar area rather than a totally new region.

[Terry Bennett]

"The US must find a way to offer a path to citizenship..." Why?

Immigration is a privilege we grant to certain individuals, and it should at least be primarily granted on the basis of a benefit to those of us who are already here. If we need people - and I do not concede at all that we do - we should attract people. If we don't need people, we shouldn't be letting them in.

The current practicality is that we have a long waiting list of qualified people. If we need people, we can get plenty, and we can afford to be choosy. We do not, in any sense, need 11 million illegals. In fact, our own lives would be bettered if the illegals all left. There would be winners and losers economically, but everyone would eventually benefit from the restoration of law, which has been set aside at present.

A lot of people enjoyed the presence of Al Capone in Chicago, to the detriment of a lot of other people. Illegals benefit employers, who make larger profits when they don't have to be concerned with minimum wage, workers comp, lawsuits, and all the rest of the overhead of legal workers. Perhaps the cost of some foods is lower due to the presence of illegals. However, the larger picture reveals that illegals are a detriment to me, a representative citizen, because they are an increased threat to my safety. They do not conform their behavior to the regime of law upon which I rely for my protection. An illegal who learned how to drive in Mexico, or any other backward country, is not thereby qualified to get in a car, sans license, and drive on the same roads I use. If they need money, why would they refrain from robbing me of my money - they obviously don't have any reservations about robbing my country of wealth, without paying their fair share to uphold the laws which make this wealth and this comfort possible for all of us.

The waiting list for Filipino immigrants in most classes is over 20 years. Filipinos are the ideal immigrants: English speaking, educated, democratic, Christian, overwhelmingly pro-U.S., not accustomed to state welfare, and able to step in and function here on day one. Most of those waiting already have family connections here. (The socialist Brits may look like me, but they surely do not think like me.) I propose that we implement a bounty system, whereby a Filipino family waiting for a member to join them can go catch an illegal, who will be fed to the sharks, and their reward will be that their waiting family member can come here and replace the illegal. We have no net loss of population, but we get better, more educated, more capable people, and they'll all be legal.